Nifty closed below 5700 after three months. Fiis sold equity worth rs 1317 cores first time in 2013. Sentiment has confirm bearish now. 13 months bearish trend has already been started. 38.2% retracement level is coming at 5508. According to chart pattern nifty is coming near that level very soon. Trend is sell on every rise. Every 100-150 points jump should be use for sell only. As per Nifty weekly chart price is below 20 week moving average. RSI has come below 50 level. According to chart another two week is also not going good for nifty. 5508 level may kiss very soon. GDP data came worsen than expected at 4.5% vs 5.3% on quarterly basis indicating strong down trend.
AUTOMATED TRADING
1 March 2013
NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 01 MARCH
Nifty closed below 5700 after three months. Fiis sold equity worth rs 1317 cores first time in 2013. Sentiment has confirm bearish now. 13 months bearish trend has already been started. 38.2% retracement level is coming at 5508. According to chart pattern nifty is coming near that level very soon. Trend is sell on every rise. Every 100-150 points jump should be use for sell only. As per Nifty weekly chart price is below 20 week moving average. RSI has come below 50 level. According to chart another two week is also not going good for nifty. 5508 level may kiss very soon. GDP data came worsen than expected at 4.5% vs 5.3% on quarterly basis indicating strong down trend.
28 February 2013
BUDGET HIGHLIGHT
India unveiled higher-than-expected spending for fiscal 2013/14 on Thursday, aiming to fund it with higher revenues - including new taxes on the rich and large companies - in a budget aimed at reviving growth amid the country's worst slowdown in a decade.
FISCAL DEFICIT
* Fiscal deficit seen at 5.2 pct of GDP in 2012/13
* Fiscal deficit seen at 4.8 pct of GDP in 2013/14
BORROWING
* Gross market borrowing seen at 6.29 trln rupees in 2013/14
* Net market borrowing seen at 4.84 trln rupees in 2013/14
* Net short-term borrowing seen at 198.44 bln rupees in 2013/14
* To buy back 500 bln rupees worth of bonds in 2013/14
SPENDING
* Total budget expenditure seen at 16.65 trln rupees in 2013/14
* Non-plan expenditure estimated at about 11.1 trln rupees in 2013/14
* India's 2013/14 plan expenditure seen at 5.55 trln rupees
* Revised estimate for total expenditure is 14.3 trln rupees in 2012/13, which is 96 pct of budget estimate
SUBSIDIES
* 2013/14 major subsidies bill estimated at 2.48 trln rupees from 1.82 trln rupees
* Petroleum subsidy seen at 650 bln rupees in 2013/14
* Revised petroleum subsidy for 2012/13 at 968.8 bln rupees
* Estimated 900 bln rupees spending on food subsidies in 2013/14
* Revised food subsidies at 850 bln rupees in 2012/13
* Revised 2012/13 fertiliser subsidy at 659.7 bln rupees
TAX
* Propose surcharge of 10 pct on rich taxpayers with annual income of more than 10 mln rupees a year
* To increase surcharge to 10 pct on domestic companies with annual income of more than 100 mln rupees
* For foreign companies, who pay the higher rate of corporate tax, the surcharge will increase from 2 pct to 5 pct
* To continue 15 pct tax concession on dividend received by India companies from foreign units for one more year
* To impose withholding tax of 20 pct on profit distribution to shareholders
* Amnesty on service tax non-compliance from 2007
* 10 bln rupees for first instalment of balance of GST (Goods and Services Tax) payment
* Propose to reduce securities transaction tax on equity futures to 0.01 pct from 0.017 pct
* To introduce commodities transaction tax (CTT)
* CTT on non-agriculture futures contracts at 0.01 pct
GROWTH
* India faces challenge of getting back to its potential growth rate of 8 pct
* India must unhesitatingly embrace growth as highest goal
REVENUE
* Expect 133 bln rupees through direct tax proposals in 2013/14
* Expect 47 bln rupees through indirect tax proposals in 2013/14
* Target 558.14 bln rupees from stake sales in state-run firms in 2013/14 vs estimate of 240 bln rupees in 2012/13
* Expect revenue of 408.5 bln rupees from airwave surcharges, auction of telecom spectrum, licence fees in 2013/14
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
* India's greater worry is current account deficit
* Will need more than $75 bln this year and next year to fund current account deficit
INFLATION
* Food inflation worrying, will take all steps to augment supply side
CORPORATE SECTOR AND MARKETS
* To issue inflation-indexed bonds
* Propose capital allowance of 15 pct to companies on investments of more than 1 bln rupees
* Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) can use investments in corporate, government bonds as collateral to meet margin requirements
* Insurance, provident funds can trade directly in debt segments of stock exchanges
* FIIs can hedge forex exposure through exchange-traded derivatives
* Investor with less than 10 pct stake in a company will be regarded as FII, more than 10 pct stake as FDI (foreign direct investor)
* Stock exchange regulator will simplify know-your-customer norms for foreign portfolio investors
* To implement quickly recommendations of financial sector legislative reforms commission
* To cut factory gate duty on trucks to 13 pct from 14 pct
POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR
* Zero customs duty for electrical plants and machinery
* Move to revenue-sharing from profit-sharing policy in oil and gas sector
* To equalise duties on steam and bituminous coal to 2 pct customs duty and 2 pct cvd (countervailing duty)
FOREIGN TRADE
* To cut duty on exports of precious and semi-precious stones to 2 pct from 10 pct
BANKING
* To provide 140 bln rupees capital infusion in state-run banks in 2013/14
DEFENCE
* To allocate 2.03 trln rupees to defence in 2013/14
AGRICULTURE
* 801.94 bln rupees to rural development in 2013/14
* 270.49 bln rupees for agriculture in 2013/14
FINANCE MINISTER COMMENTS
* "Faced with a huge fiscal deficit, I have no choice but to rationalize expenditure. We took a dose of bitter medicine. It seems to be working."
(Compiled by Matthias Williams, Annie Banerji, Arup Roychoudhury and Satarupa Bhattacharjya)
Source:- (Reuters)
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
AVOID TRADING ON BUDGET DAY DUE TO HIGH VOLATILITY. TREND WILL REMAIN HIGHLY NEGATIVE, INTRADAY SPIKE MAY BE VISIBLE DUE TO EXPIRY AND BUDGET. TRADE ON CLOSING BASIS. FRESH SHORT POSITION CAN BE CREATED BELOW 5750 WITH STOPLOSS COMING AT 5825. INTRADAY SETUP TECHNICAL WILL BE INVALID TODAY DUE TO NEWS MOMENTUM EFFECT. DONT TRADE BASED ON IT TODAY.
27 February 2013
Some simple budget recommendations to the FM
The Finance Ministry, I am sure must be in an extremely busy state preparing the final Budget documents. It would also be getting hit by a huge number of recommendations from various Lobby groups. I am sure that each industry would be clamoring for incentives for investments, lower taxes, higher import protection etc. On my part after some thinking I thought of the following recommendations.
1. The first and foremost concern today is to get the investment cycle going. I believe that looking at the order books of a large number of infrastructure companies even if the roadblocks on implementation are removed for already awarded projects it will give a significant boost to the economy in the short run. Some incentives for capital formation in the short run could also be helpful in making companies move. We have seen that the Cabinet Committee on Infrastructure has already met twice and taken some decisions. These decisions obviously need to be speed-ed up. However all of this lies outside the scope of the budget and is a question of governance and clearances. One move that can be taken in the budget is to treat the Viability Gap Funding of infrastructure projects as equity in the hands of the developer. This will improve the debt to equity ratio of the projects and make funding more viable. Urban infrastructure projects do not face the same environmental issues that other projects face. As such in the short run there should be a focus on these projects to revive the economy. There have been plans of Metro networks in 20 large cities in the country. Besides this there are several infrastructure improvement projects across all major cities which can be accelerated. VGF going into equity will improve the viability of a large number of such projects.
2. One of the major reasons why exports have not picked up despite a very competitive currency has been the high interest rates in the country. It is critical to reduce the cost of export credit, both pre and post shipment. Competing economies have an interest rate environment where interest rates are 7 to10% cheaper than that for Indian corporates. There is need to have a system where adequate and low cost credit is available for exporters. This will have a significant impact on exports. A number of people argue that in earlier times exports have done well even when interest rates were much higher. However the reality is that in those times the global economy was not so stressed where no one wants to keep any inventory. Moreover the interest rate differential was not so high where most competing economies today have policy rates between 1.5-3% and India is at 7.75%.
3. Short term capital gains tax should be abolished on profits from equity mutual funds as well as direct equity. This will have a dual impact. Firstly we will see increased participation from domestic investors who have been continuously pulling out money from equity. Secondly it will remove the incentive for Foreign Investors to invest money into India through tax havens. More and more direct and transparent money will come into the country. The total collection of the government from Short Term Capital Gain tax is minuscule, however the cost of administration is quite high. Foreign investors will not need to come through tax havens and the ease of access of the markets will improve significantly. The boost in value such a move will give to the stock prices of PSU's will be a huge multiple of what the government can hope to make through the STCG tax. For example if the price of just Coal India moves up by 10% it will boost the value of the governments stake by nearly Rs 20,000 Crores. This type of STCG tax will come to the government in more than 3 to 5 years.
4. The biggest reason for a continuous liquidity deficit in the domestic markets, other than off course the tight monetary policy of the RBI has been the rising Current Account Deficit which is taking domestic liquidty out. Although the government has raised duties on Gold it is improbable that demand will fall drastically just because of this move. The focus should be instead on promoting investment both in Equity & Long term debt. An upfront tax incentive of 10% for saving upto Rs 2,00,000 in Equity Mutual Funds with a 3 year lock in will be attractive for investors. However this should be separate from the tax breaks that come with investing into Tax Saving Mutual Funds under section 80C. A similar tax incentive can be provided for investment into Bank Fixed Deposits with atleast a 7 year maturity and with insurance policies with a long term maturity.
5. As we have seen from the European example, fiscal consolidation and tight monetary conditions combined are a sureshot combination for slow growth revival.Significant steps have been taken towards fiscal consolidation, it is now time that domestic interest rates come down. One of the major reasons given for the slow downward movement of domestic interest rates has been the crowding out due to high government borrowings. My suggestion on this front would be for the government to go in for a long term sovereign bond issue, preferably with a 20 or 30 year maturity. Given extremely low rates available globally and the reduced risk aversion, my estimate is that India can raise 30 year USD money at approximately 4.5%. This will have three direct benefits, crowding out will be eliminated, government borrowing costs will come down & the INR will appreciate. Appreciation of the INR will have a direct impact on inflation which will trend down and give space to the RBI to reduce domestic rates. As such a strong virtuous cycle will start which will lead to significant growth revival. As a Sovereign the country can affort not to be hedged for a $ 20 billion borrowing which will be hardly 0.2% of GDP at the time of maturity.
These suggestions are simple to implement and have the ability to boost economic sentiments significantly.
MARKETS
The stock markets have behaved quite strangely running up to the budget. There seems to be a feeling of "The budget really cannot address so many issues by itself", while this is true there have also been steps taken outside the budget. On the derivatives side the markets are also approaching the budget extremely oversold with the Put:Call ratio for the current month at almost the lowest level from where I have started monitoring it. Normally such oversold conditions, combined with a negative February leads to a significantly positive March. The actual content of the budget as well as global cues will also be relevant inputs. The upside from here is that macroeconomic data points should continue to improve. The downside is that of a slowdown in global funds flow into emerging markets due to under-performance. However the longer term funds flow picture is intact with low inflation, low growth and continued high monetary stimulus across the developed world.
Will write more post budgets. Keeping my fingers crossed.
Article written by Sandipsabharwal
1. The first and foremost concern today is to get the investment cycle going. I believe that looking at the order books of a large number of infrastructure companies even if the roadblocks on implementation are removed for already awarded projects it will give a significant boost to the economy in the short run. Some incentives for capital formation in the short run could also be helpful in making companies move. We have seen that the Cabinet Committee on Infrastructure has already met twice and taken some decisions. These decisions obviously need to be speed-ed up. However all of this lies outside the scope of the budget and is a question of governance and clearances. One move that can be taken in the budget is to treat the Viability Gap Funding of infrastructure projects as equity in the hands of the developer. This will improve the debt to equity ratio of the projects and make funding more viable. Urban infrastructure projects do not face the same environmental issues that other projects face. As such in the short run there should be a focus on these projects to revive the economy. There have been plans of Metro networks in 20 large cities in the country. Besides this there are several infrastructure improvement projects across all major cities which can be accelerated. VGF going into equity will improve the viability of a large number of such projects.
2. One of the major reasons why exports have not picked up despite a very competitive currency has been the high interest rates in the country. It is critical to reduce the cost of export credit, both pre and post shipment. Competing economies have an interest rate environment where interest rates are 7 to10% cheaper than that for Indian corporates. There is need to have a system where adequate and low cost credit is available for exporters. This will have a significant impact on exports. A number of people argue that in earlier times exports have done well even when interest rates were much higher. However the reality is that in those times the global economy was not so stressed where no one wants to keep any inventory. Moreover the interest rate differential was not so high where most competing economies today have policy rates between 1.5-3% and India is at 7.75%.
3. Short term capital gains tax should be abolished on profits from equity mutual funds as well as direct equity. This will have a dual impact. Firstly we will see increased participation from domestic investors who have been continuously pulling out money from equity. Secondly it will remove the incentive for Foreign Investors to invest money into India through tax havens. More and more direct and transparent money will come into the country. The total collection of the government from Short Term Capital Gain tax is minuscule, however the cost of administration is quite high. Foreign investors will not need to come through tax havens and the ease of access of the markets will improve significantly. The boost in value such a move will give to the stock prices of PSU's will be a huge multiple of what the government can hope to make through the STCG tax. For example if the price of just Coal India moves up by 10% it will boost the value of the governments stake by nearly Rs 20,000 Crores. This type of STCG tax will come to the government in more than 3 to 5 years.
4. The biggest reason for a continuous liquidity deficit in the domestic markets, other than off course the tight monetary policy of the RBI has been the rising Current Account Deficit which is taking domestic liquidty out. Although the government has raised duties on Gold it is improbable that demand will fall drastically just because of this move. The focus should be instead on promoting investment both in Equity & Long term debt. An upfront tax incentive of 10% for saving upto Rs 2,00,000 in Equity Mutual Funds with a 3 year lock in will be attractive for investors. However this should be separate from the tax breaks that come with investing into Tax Saving Mutual Funds under section 80C. A similar tax incentive can be provided for investment into Bank Fixed Deposits with atleast a 7 year maturity and with insurance policies with a long term maturity.
5. As we have seen from the European example, fiscal consolidation and tight monetary conditions combined are a sureshot combination for slow growth revival.Significant steps have been taken towards fiscal consolidation, it is now time that domestic interest rates come down. One of the major reasons given for the slow downward movement of domestic interest rates has been the crowding out due to high government borrowings. My suggestion on this front would be for the government to go in for a long term sovereign bond issue, preferably with a 20 or 30 year maturity. Given extremely low rates available globally and the reduced risk aversion, my estimate is that India can raise 30 year USD money at approximately 4.5%. This will have three direct benefits, crowding out will be eliminated, government borrowing costs will come down & the INR will appreciate. Appreciation of the INR will have a direct impact on inflation which will trend down and give space to the RBI to reduce domestic rates. As such a strong virtuous cycle will start which will lead to significant growth revival. As a Sovereign the country can affort not to be hedged for a $ 20 billion borrowing which will be hardly 0.2% of GDP at the time of maturity.
These suggestions are simple to implement and have the ability to boost economic sentiments significantly.
MARKETS
The stock markets have behaved quite strangely running up to the budget. There seems to be a feeling of "The budget really cannot address so many issues by itself", while this is true there have also been steps taken outside the budget. On the derivatives side the markets are also approaching the budget extremely oversold with the Put:Call ratio for the current month at almost the lowest level from where I have started monitoring it. Normally such oversold conditions, combined with a negative February leads to a significantly positive March. The actual content of the budget as well as global cues will also be relevant inputs. The upside from here is that macroeconomic data points should continue to improve. The downside is that of a slowdown in global funds flow into emerging markets due to under-performance. However the longer term funds flow picture is intact with low inflation, low growth and continued high monetary stimulus across the developed world.
Will write more post budgets. Keeping my fingers crossed.
Article written by Sandipsabharwal
INTRADAY SETUP OR ATM MACHINE
PARTY THO BANTA HAI BHAI
This is ATM machine or intraday setup. Some of my intraday buyers say this that this is a ATM machine.
This is ATM machine or intraday setup. Some of my intraday buyers say this that this is a ATM machine.
Yes what it is proving today just see.
Market open little gap up around 5784.90 today, according to my setup sell level 1 is at 5782.32.
I bought 5000 quantity of 5900 put by confirming with some our parameter at 125 and sold it out at 145. net 20 point profit in a singal day.
5000 X rs.20 = 100000 ( one lakh)
Now you tell my dear friends this is intraday setup or ATM machine. BUY INTRADAY TRADING SETUP.
NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 27 FEB
Railway budget and global negative sentiment pull nifty down. The markets closed with 1.6% declines yesterday with Auto sector was the worst performer. Nifty shut shop at 5761.35, down 93.4 points. The CNX Midcap index was 1.83% while the CNX Smallcap index down 2.21% in yesterday's trade. The market breadth was negative.
FIIs sold index future 43754 contracts worth Rs 1271 with open interest increasing indicating fresh short position has also been created into the market. According to Nifty chart pattern A bid bearish candle stick pattern has formed yesterday and nifty closed at 61.8% retracement level of previous swing. Price is falling below 45 degree angle. According to RSI and slow stochastic, the indicatores are showing oversold. The pattern is sell on rise. Sell nifty around 5780-90 with stoploss at 5825.
According to elliott wave pattern hoyrly chart showing that third longest wave is on so i expect price will wall till 5666 range.
Buy Intraday trading setup and enjoy everyday profit. Everyday will be your day. Trade objectively and be a trading Hero.
According to elliott wave pattern hoyrly chart showing that third longest wave is on so i expect price will wall till 5666 range.
Buy Intraday trading setup and enjoy everyday profit. Everyday will be your day. Trade objectively and be a trading Hero.
26 February 2013
NIFTY UPDATE FOR 26 FEB 2012
AS NIFTY CLOSE FLAT SO THERE IS NO ANY CHANGE IN TECHNICAL. FIIS SHORT 14729 CONTRACTS OF INDEX FUTURE WORTH RS 432 CORES AND OPEN INTEREST INCREASED BY 33077 CONTRACTS. INCREASE IN OPEN INTEREST INDICATING THAT FRESH SHORT POSITION HAS BEEN MADE IN INDEX TODAY. AS PER NIFTY HOURLY CHART A STRONG TREND LINE IS COMING INTO THE WAY WHICH IS STOPPING NIFTY. SO UNTIL UNLESS NIFTY IS BELOW THIS TREND LINE BE IN SHORT SIDE. BREAK BELOW 5800 FAST FALL MAY BE VISIBLE TILL 5650.
25 February 2013
INTRADAY TRADING SETUP TRADE 2
This type of wonderful trading opportunity you will get twice or thrice in a month. Remember not daily but twice or thrice in which you will get two or some time three times trading opportunity. Today second trading setup occurred. got buy signal at buy level 1 at 5829.69 stoploss coming at 5823.69. Nifty made low at 5825 stoploss didn't get hit. I bought again 20 lot 5800 call at 67 and sold at 77. Rs.10000 profit again.
Enjoy........
Buy It or miss it. Just dial to know - 8579864186
Good luck............
Happy trading.
INTRADAY TRADING SETUP TRADE EXAMPLE
Trading without any proper setup is disastrous consequences. Trade with Intraday setup and Enjoy daily profit. This is not a setup some of our subscriber call it an ATM machine.
I am giving example below. According to my Intraday setup Today again sell signal occur at 5867.98. I bought 5900 put 20 lots at 70 rupees price. and see the chart given below what next happened. After 1.5 hours i booked it at 80 rupees.
20 lots = 1000 quantity= 10000 x 80-70=10=Rupees 10000.
What else you want my dear ?
Don't do adventure with your capital. Buy intraday trading setup and enjoy daily profit.
In beginning its price was at RS.2000 when it was launched. (introductory price )
After that it was available at 5000. Now a days it is available at 10000. would you like it to grab at this price or you would like to grab it at 15000.
yes.......
price is going to increase very soon. Subscribe it or miss it.
24 February 2013
NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 25 FEB
Nifty is at critical juncture and bears closed the nifty below 5880 level. Next week Union budget is on the way and 2013-14 budget will be bad for economy and a Nightmare for bulls globally and it will create the lots of volatility in the market. Nifty weekly chart suggesting a good sell signal. Daily Chart is getting little oversold. Nifty 6000 call highest open interest suggesting upper boundary for near term. Nifty daily chart and weekly chart giving strong trend line resistance at 5921. Traders should assume this resistance as stop loss for short trend. For fresh long entry should done only above 5921 level. Due to high volatility Intra day trading is advisable till budget. Head & Shoulder pattern has formed on daily chart If price slip below 5800 fast fall can be happen till 5630 level. There could be lots of volatile session can be seen in coming week so trade systematically and objectively. 5886 level will play important resistance for nifty for coming week cross then 5920 will act as a good line of control level in the market. Use rise for sell.
WHAT IS MOST IMPORTANT IN THE MARKET
WHAT IS MOST IMPORTANT IN THE MARKET ?
The most Important things in the market is better entry level and better exit level and which direction you should be in ? That set.
Trading is very simple but all the media channels, news papers, economist and analyst have made it complicated.
I have found simple and most effective tools (only five ) which give you financial freedom in few years.
Again and again I am saying that don't adventure with your capital. Do Crash course or, buy Intraday trading setup and enjoy trading. Make your trading tension free and profitable.
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