20 May 2012
The RSI fell below 30 for the first time while wave counts are extending in a C. Wave C has a minimum target of 4840 and an extended target of 4785. Once complete this wave C Nifty bounce would occur that might bring us out of oversold territory. 4976 previous Fridays high and 5030 are key resistance levels. The Nifty is now clearly below all the supports from the falling channel and falling wedge like pattern. At 5040 that high should be formidable in the short term. The 61.8% retracement at 4950 broke, 4785 was the 75% retracement that it tasted on friday and from there Nifty smartly recovered.
1:- it should jump smartly upto 5900 in three sub waves.
2:- It should fall up to 4200 level in two sub waves.
Currently nifty is in highly oversold zone on both daily and weekly charts. Watch carefully 4935 level on monday. for up move nifty must close above this level and closing above this level will give first confirmation for up move.After crossing 5030 level and closing above this level on weekly basis will give second strong confirmation for the target of 5900 in next two months. These all things will only happen when global market will support our market.
Dow jones has strong support at 12250, so key level to watch this 12250 for dow. If we move below 12250 on DOW we may see fall up to 11800-11500. In that situation our market will not act in different waves and we may fall up to 4500 again after failing 4935 level on nifty.
Therefor 12250 for DOW level will be trend decider level for all market.
80% chances ---------------------------5900 in next two months
20% chances ---------------------------4200 in next three months
16 May 2012
TODAY LOW 4837 IS BIG SUPPORT FOR NIFTY. NIFTY MAY BOUNCE FROM HERE. ANY CLOSE BELOW 4800 WILL CREATE LIKE PANIC SITUATION. AS PER ELLIOT WAVE ANALYSIS NIFTY HAS COMPLETED ITS DOWN MOVE CORRECTION. AS PER NIFTY WEEKLY CHART ABOVE NIFTY IS AT A LONG TERM TREND LINE SUPPORT.
ANY TIME RED CAT BOUNCE. AS PER SLOW STOCHASTIC NIFTY WEEKLY CHART IS IN HIGHLY OVERSOLD ZONE.
THESE THREE REASON MAY GIVE NIFTY BOUNCE BACK.
CURRENTLY NIFTY IS AT CRITICAL JUNCTURE, BOUNCE BACK FROM HERE BULL WILL FLY UP TO 5900 LEVEL. AND SLIPPING BELOW 4800 WILL CREATE PANIC TILL 4200 LEVEL IN NEXT THREE MONTHS.
ANY CLOSE ABOVE 4940 WILL CONFIRM THE BULLISH REVERSAL. AND CLOSE BELOW 4800 WILL CONFIRM LONG TERM TREND LINE BREAK DOWN BEARISH TREND.
15 May 2012
sustaining above 4950 will confirm the bullish reversal.
11 May 2012
10 May 2012
9 May 2012
8 May 2012
Nifty 5000 call oi added 1,163,700 contracts and Nifty 4900 put added 1,092,250 contracts in
open interest.Nifty tried lot to cross 200 DMA today but failed to sustain above this is itself a
bearish sign. As per nifty EOD charts RSI and slow stochastic indicators are in favor with bears.
secondary nifty has given two closing below 200DMA. Fii used the rise as short in
Nifty future yesterday.AS per option open interest data From 4900 to 5200 call total open interest
14228100 and 4900 -5200 put total open interest 18399950. still put open interest is more than
call open interest. Long term falling trend line support is coming around 4950. This level is all
ready indicated in earlier posts.
Now what is conclusion:- watch the 4950 level on wednesday. Nifty any close below this level
create more panic in market.
6 May 2012
As per Nifty EOD charts all technical indicators are supporting bears. Need to be very carefully at this level. If nifty jump 30 points up on monday shorting in nifty around 5112 is less risky than buying.
I highly expect Nifty will come 4950 and i have all ready predicted this level earlier.
If only you could know when the market was going to be choppy; That one piece of information could possibly turn you into a profitable trader!
Choppy markets chop up your profits. Sometimes learning when NOT to trade is just as important as knowing when to trade.
Knowing your trading signals and when to trade is your "offense." Knowing when NOT to take your trading signals is your "defense."
To win at the trading game you need both a good offense and a good defense.
You can learn all about it from my daily NIFTY X-RAY REPORT "How to Avoid Choppy Markets and Get in on Major Trends."
The Report can help you by giving you proven filters you can add to ANY trading method telling you when your trading setup is likely NOT to work.
But, just as importantly, it also teaches you how to anticipate the end of choppy conditions and the beginning of new trends ... therefore getting you early into new mega trends!
So don't forget to read daily NIFTY X-RAY REPORT.
4 May 2012
3 May 2012
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2 May 2012
Today 5300 call added 802,100 contracts in open interest. 5200 put added 923,700 contracts in open interest. Nifty future decreased its open interest by 0.98%. Nifty future premium decreased from 19.70 to 7.80. As per option open interest data nifty is indicating that it will face support around 5200-5180 and resistance around 5280 level. Bull trade only can be consider closing after 5310 level.
As per nifty chart RSI faced resistance at 50 level. Slow stochastic indicator moved up very fast indicating very less strenth towards upside. Watch nifty carefuly on wednesday, If nifty close below 5180 this time it may touch 5050-4950 level in coming days till next week.
1 May 2012
TRADING IN NIFTY FUTURE MAY MAKE YOU CROREPATI IN JUST 3.5 YEARS.
JUST SEE THE PERFORMANCE OF CROREPATI TRADING PLAN BELOW OF APRIL MONTH.
HOW IT IS SAFE AND SECURE ? TO KNOW JUST CLICK ON THE CROREPATI PICTURE/LOGO ON LEFT SIDE OF THIS WEBSITE.
THERE ARE SO MANY PERSON WHO BECAME CROREPATI IN JUST 3.5 YEARS IN INDIA OR IN WORLD IN NETWORK BUSINESS, BECAUSE THEY ALL HAVE STARTED THEIR BUSINESS AT RIGHT TIME. THIS IS NOT A NETWORK BUSINESS BUT THIS IS THE RIGHT TIME AND RIGHT OPPORTUNITY FOR YOU TO BECOME CROREPATI IN JUST 3.5 YEARS.
AANE WALA TIME ME SIRF TIN (3) AISE SITUATION HO SAKTE HAIN JISME AAPKE 3.5 YEARS ME CROREPATI BANANE KE SAPNE ADHURE RAH JAAYENGE.
1.- AGAR MAI 3.5 YEARS TAK ZINDA NAA RAHA TOH AAPKE SAPNE ADHURE RAH JAAYENGE.
OR
2. AGAR AAP 3.5 YEARS TAK ZINDA NA RAHE TOH BHI AAPKE SAPNE ADHURE RAH JAYENGE.
OR
3. AGAR AAP BICH ME HI SAFAR CHOR KAR NIKAL JAAYEN YA AAPNE MERE SAATH HAATH NAHI MILAYA THO BHI AAPKE SAPNE ADHURE RAH JAAYENGE.
BAAKI AUR KOI CONDITION ISE PURA HONE SE NAHI ROK SAKTA.
30 April 2012
PERFORMANCE OF NIFTY FUTURE CROREPATI PLAN IN APRIL
From : Rajesh Singh at 12:20 PM - Apr 04, 2012 ( 26 days ago )
START YOUR TRADING JOURNEY.
SHORT NIFTY FUTURE AT 5345 REVERSE YOUR TRADE LEVEL AT 5390
From : Rajesh Singh at 02:01 PM - Apr 10, 2012 ( 20 days ago )
BOOK PROFIT IN NIFTY FUTURE AT 5250. SHORT CALL GIVEN AT 5345
From : Rajesh Singh at 11:41 AM - Apr 11, 2012 ( 19 days ago )
BUY NIFTY FUTURE AT 5222 TRADE REVERSAL POINT 5280
From : Rajesh Singh at 02:46 PM - Apr 11, 2012 ( 19 days ago )
please exit from nifty at 5252
From : Rajesh Singh at 08:25 AM - Apr 12, 2012 ( 19 days ago )
WE HAVE GAIN TOTAL 95+30 POINTS TILL NOW IN TWO TRADE.
NIFTY WILL FACE STRONG SUPPORT AT 5210 LEVEL AND IT WILL BE STRONG SUSTAINING ABOVE 5250 FOR AN HOUR.
From : Rajesh Singh at 10:24 AM - Apr 12, 2012 ( 18 days ago )
BUY NIFTY FUTURE AT 5282 STOPLOSS AT 5232 TRADE REVERSAL LEVEL 5195
From : Rajesh Singh at 12:26 PM - Apr 13, 2012 ( 17 days ago )
BOOK PROFIT NIFTY FUTURE AT 5320
From : Rajesh Singh at 12:50 PM - Apr 13, 2012 ( 17 days ago )
WE HAVE MADE 95+30+38= 163 POINTS TILL NOW. WE HAVE DONE THREE TRADE. ALL TRADE HAVE BOOKED PROFIT. THATS THE MAIN FEATURE OF MY NEW INVENTED TRADING SYSTEM.. WHERE GENERALLY PEOPLE LOSE 8 TIMES AND WIN 2 TIMES IN STOCK MARKET BUT YOU WILL WIN 9 TIMES AND LOSE 1 TIMES IN MY TRADING SYSTEM.. PLEASE DON'T BE HURRY WE HAVE LOTS OF TIME TO BECOME CROREPATI.
REMEMBER WE HAVE TO GAIN 1.28 CRORE IN 3.5 YEARS. AND WE WILL DO IT EITHER YOU BELIEVE OR NOT.
THE PERSON WHO HAVE LESS TIME PLEASE DON'T FOLLOW THIS THREAD.
From : Rajesh Singh at 10:33 AM - Apr 16, 2012 ( 14 days ago )
SHORT NIFTY AT 5225 TRADE REVERSAL LEVEL 5265 TARGET 5190
From : Rajesh Singh at 10:35 AM - Apr 17, 2012 ( 13 days ago )
MARKET CAN GIVE A JUMP OF 40-50 POINTS TODAY IF RBI RATE CUT HAPPEN. MODIFY YOUR STOPLOSS AT 5285. AFTER THAT ONLY DOWN FALL EXPECTED.
From : Rajesh Singh at 02:35 PM - Apr 17, 2012 ( 13 days ago )
NIFTY SPOT 5330 LEVEL WILL BE GOOD LEVEL FOR SHORT.
SHORT NIFTY AT 5330 SPOT LEVEL AND FIX YOUR TRADE REVERSAL AT 5360 TARGET 5210-5150 FOR DOWN SIDE. AND FOR UPSIDE TARGET 5430-5500
From : Rajesh Singh at 02:22 PM - Apr 23, 2012 ( 7 days ago )
BOOK PROFIT AT 5217
From : Rajesh Singh at 02:28 PM - Apr 23, 2012 ( 7 days ago )
WE HAVE MADE 95+30+38= 163-60=103+135=238 POINTS TILL NOW IN THIS MONTH. OUR TARGET IS ACHEAVED FOR THIS MONTH.
ENJOYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
From : Rajesh Singh at 08:55 AM - Apr 24, 2012 ( 7 days ago )
TODAY'S STRATAGY 24/4/12
SHORT NIFTY (MAY) FUTURE AROUND 5260. TREND REVERSAL POINT 5310 TARGET 5160-5150.
From : Rajesh Singh at 12:13 PM - Apr 25, 2012 ( 5 days ago )
BOOK PROFIT IN MAY NIFTY FUTURE AT 5200
From : Rajesh Singh at 12:23 PM - Apr 25, 2012 ( 5 days ago )
WE HAVE MADE 95+30+38= 163-60=103+135=238+60=298 POINTS TILL NOW. 98 POINTS PREMIUM FROM OUR TARGET.
I HAVE TOLD YOU THAT WE CAN DOUBLE OUR INVESTMENT IN JUST 3.5 MONTHS BUT FOR OUR RISK FREE TRADE I HAVE MADE IT VERY EASY.
From : Rajesh Singh at 02:53 PM - Apr 25, 2012 ( 5 days ago )
BUY NIFTY MAY FUTURE AT 5240 TRADE REVERSAL POINT AT 5180
From : Rajesh Singh at 09:54 AM - Apr 27, 2012 ( 4 days ago )
please exit from nifty future at 5240 with no loss no profit.
MARKET IS STRUGGLING AROUND 5220. SHORT NIFTY FUTURE AT 5240 TRADE REVERSAL LEVEL 5290
From : Rajesh Singh at 02:05 PM - Apr 27, 2012 ( 3 days ago )
BOOK PROFIT AT 5200 LEVEL NOW
From : Rajesh Singh at 02:19 PM - Apr 27, 2012 ( 3 days ago )
WE HAVE MADE 95+30+38= 163-60=103+135=238+60=298 +40=338 POINTS TILL NOW. 138 POINTS BONUS. WE HAVE STILL FEW DAYS LEFT TO COMPLETE A MONTH.
SUBSCRIBE CROREPATI PLAN
BE CROREPATI IN JUST 3.5 YEARS WITH THE INVESTMENT OF 50000 IN NIFTY FUTURE.
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29 April 2012
NIFTY 5200 CALL ADDED 76850 CONTRACTS IN OPEN INTEREST AND 5300 CALL DECREASED -8850 CONTRACTS. 5300 PUT TOTAL OPEN INTEREST 1,801,650 AND 5300 CALL TOTAL OPEN INTEREST 3147050 CONTRACTS. IT SEEMS THAT MARKET WILL REMAIN IN SIDEWAYS AND FLACTUATE BETWEEN 5100-5300.
LETS CONSIDER CHARTS- NIFTY SLOW STOCHASTIC INDICATOR COMING INTO OVERSOLD AND OVERBOUGHT ZONE VERY SOON ONLY UNDER 200 POINTS RALLY. I EXPECT ANOTHER VOLATILE WEEK AHEAD. FIRSTLY WATCH 5220 LEVEL ON MONDAY. SUSTAINING ABOVE 5220 LEVEL FOR AN HOUR NIFTY MAY TOUCH 5260-5280 LEVEL. BULLS MAY KEEP LONG OVERNIGHT ONLY AFTER CLOSING ABOVE 5290 LEVEL.
23 April 2012
Buy at / above: 5230 Targets: 5250- 5265 - 5275
Stoploss : 5205Sell at / below: 5185 Targets: 5168 - 5150 - 5135 - 5112
Stoploss : 5210
NIFTY HAS MADE ONCE AGAIN LOWER TOP FORMATION ON CHARTS. I TOLD YOU UNTILL UNLESS IT CLOSE ABOVE 5340 BULL RALLY CANNOT BE CONFIRMED. I RECOMENDED TO SHORT NIFTY AROUND THIS LEVEL. ON FRIDAY 5300 PE DECREASED 1084350 CONTRACTS AND 5200PE DECREASED 476750 CONTRACTS IN OPEN INTEREST . NIFTY FUTURE PREMIUM DECREASED FROM 23 POINTS TO 11 POINTS. MEANS HUGE PROFIT BOOKING SEEN IN LONG SIDE. THIS WHOLE MONTHS VOLUME WAS VERY LOW SO I DONT EXPECT ANY MAJOR FALL OR RISE IN NEXT 4 DAYS TRADING SESSION. NIFTY WILL FACE STRONG SUPPORT AROUND 5180-5135 AND IT WILL FACE STRONG RESISTANCE AROUND 5335-5340. ONLY INTRADAY TRADING IS GOOD FOR NEXT FOUR DAYS.
Recommendation:
Buy at / above: 5298 Targets: 5312 - 5325 - 5345 - 5362 Stoploss : 5274
Sell at / below: 5274 Targets: 5255 - 5240 - 5220 - 5205 Stoploss : 5294
15 April 2012
NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 16 APRIL
AS I TOLD YOU ON FRIDAY UNTILL UNLESS NIFTY CLOSE ABOVE 5340 BULL RALLY CANNOT BE CONFIRMED, AND I ALSO TOLD YOU THAT DON'T FRESH BUY. YOU ALL WOULD HAVE SEEN WHAT HAPPEND IN LAST HOUR.
The markets closed with significant declines this week and barring auto, FMCG and healthcare, all sectoral indices closed negative. The Sensex was down 2% and the Nifty also lost 2% during the week. The CNX Midcap index was down 2.8%, the BSE small cap was down 0.6% and the Bank Nifty closed with 0.2% loss over the week.
Nifty 5200 CE added 374550 contracts and 5300 CE added 4634350 contracts in open interest. 5200 PE decreased -284450 and 5300PE decreased --5263000 contracts. 5100 PE added 221250 contracts in open interest. Nifty future closed at 5221.10 and open interest is up by 0.50%.
Conclusion from all data.
Further more weakness is expected but nifty strong support at 5135 spot level. Any close below 5135 we may see a down fall to 4900 level. But It seems Its chances are very low. One can buy nifty future at 5150-5160 level with strict stoploss at 5125. Market would be volattile next week. One day fall and another day rise pattern is expected. Market move will depend on RBI reviews on 17th April. There is a 0.25% rate cut expected in market.
Trade very carefully in next week.
13 April 2012
12 April 2012
NIFTY X RAY REPORT 13 APRIL
5200 PE added higest openterest today with total openinterest at 6807250.5300 CE oi is decreased by 18200 contracts. huge put writing has been seen today by big and smart players. big resistance on chart. Any 2 consecutive close above 5340 nifty will fly to 5500-5600 level nonstop.
We have all ready entered in nifty, but If have not entered in nifty wait for 5340 level. certainly you will get 200 points up side.
11 April 2012
NIFTY X- RAY REPORT FOR 12 APRIL
The Sensex closed at 17199, down 44 points from its previous close, and the Nifty shut shop at 5227, down 17 points. The CNX Midcap index closed with 0.6% loss while the BSE smallcap index was down 0.3% in today's trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 544 against declines of 884 on the NSE. As I told you in my previous post that there was distribution between put writers and call writers and market can be violent any time. Today's data is similar like yesterday, but chart pattern is different from yesterday. Slow stochastic indicator has fallen very sharply which is creating doubt for down move. Rate of change (Roc) indicator indicating that there is changing in rate positive side. 5200 PE added 563450 contracts in OI and 5300 CE added 909100 contracts in open interest. 5400 CE also added 683900 contracts. There is still a distributed views on nifty. Today Call writing figure is grater than put writing figure. nifty future premium increased from 18 points to 24 points.
Nifty took support continue 2 days around 5200 level and it is moving in very tight range 5190-5340 now. Data is not suggesting anything clear, but chart is suggesting A minor up move is due up to 5330-5340 levels. Any 2 consecutive close above 5340 nifty may kiss to 5500-5600 level. Only intraday trading is advisable till 5340 level.
10 April 2012
NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 11 APRIL
9 April 2012
NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 10 APRIL
INTRADAY DAY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
5256.25 5274.39 5292.56 5310.76 5329
Support 1 Support 2 Support 3 Support 4 Support 5
5202.01 5184 5166.01 5148.06 5130.14
Recommendation:
Buy at / above: 5238.14 Targets: 5253.62 - 5271.75 - 5289.91 - 5308.11
Stoploss : 5220.06
Sell at / below: 5220.06 Targets: 5204.61 - 5186.59 - 5168.59 - 5150.63
Stoploss : 5238.14
8 April 2012
As we discussed in our previous post that Nifty will face hurdle around 5375. It kissed and slip to 5305 and closed at 5322 level. There are no changing in technical indicators. There are a strong falling trend line resistance in Nifty daily chart, Any close above 5475 we may see a strong 200 points jump on nifty charts. Slow stochastic has reached in overbought zone very soon only in 4 trading session and ADX is not moving up so there may be a short term downtrend. Any close below 5280 This time will give power to bears. 5400 and 5300 put open interest has decreased and 5300 and 5400 call added open interest showing profit booking by put writers. Nifty future decreased it open interest by 5.42%. We have clearly seen profit booking in long sides.
INTRADAY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Resistance1 Resistance2 Resistance3 Resistance4 Resistance 5
5347.26 5365.56 5383.89 5402.25 5420.64
Support1 Support2 Support3 Support4 Support 5
5292.56 5274.39 5256.25 5238.14 5220.06
Recommendation:
Buy at / above: 5329 Targets: 5344.59 - 5362.87 - 5381.19 - 5399.54
Stoploss : 5310.76
Sell at / below: 5310.76 Targets: 5295.2 - 5277.02 - 5258.87 - 5240.75
Stoploss : 5329
4 April 2012
NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 04 APRIL
Market faced hurddle around falling trend line level 5375. All the situation are as same as yesterday. we have see open interest buildup in 5300 put and 5400 put yesterday. Any two consecutive close above 5375 level nifty may touch 5485 level. but at current level between 5350-5420 only intraday trade.
US market vix index is around 17 level. this level is a reversal level in trend of US market. there are close of 4 days in our market so keeping position is risky. Any negetive news from world market may drag our indices down.
INTRADAY TRADING LEVEL FOR 04 APRIL
Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Resistance 3 Resistance 4 Resistance 5
5383.89 5402.25 5420.64 5439.06 5457.51
Support 1 Support 2 Support 3 Support 4 Support 5
5329 5310.76 5292.56 5274.39 5256.25
Recommendation:
Buy at / above: 5365.56 Targets: 5381.19 - 5399.54 - 5417.93 - 5436.34
Stoploss : 5347.26
Sell at / below: 5347.26 Targets: 5331.66 - 5313.42 - 5295.2 - 5277.02
Stoploss : 5365.56
3 April 2012
MAKE 30 CRORES IN JUST 5 YEARS WITH THE INVESTMENT OF RS.50000
it is a plan which will work both the times. bull or bear market.
TO READ FULL DETAILS JUST CLICK ABOVE CROREPATI BUTTON
2 April 2012
NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 03 APRIL
As I have been saying that market will face hurdle at 5365 level and I see maximum stretch up to 5440 level. but its chances are very low. but market is never guaranteed.5300 call added 67650 shares and 5400 call added 593100 shares in open interest today. 5300 put added 486800 shares in open interest. 5400 call has highest open interest at 4126400 will create a big barrier for nifty.
But one of the most interesting thing is that nifty 4700 Put added 1557300 shares in open interest. Is there any big game is going to happen in this month by big and smart money player? yes this secret is reserve for our V.I.PS.
Nifty moved in very tight range but its slow stochastic indicators rising rapidly indicating that market is about to come in overbought zone very soon most probably in one or two trading session. India volatility charts has a strong support at around 20 level. these all indicators indicating reversal very soon. Further no positional long trading at current level. Trade only intraday for next day. There are two days leave in stock market so option premium will decrease very soon. holding option should avoided.
1 April 2012
What is put call ratio and implied volatility?
2. What is implied volatility? Implied volatility of an option contract is defined as the volatility of underlying asset price, which is implied /indicated by the market price of that option. Simply, Nifty 5000 call option's implied volatility means the volatility of the price of nifty index, indicated by the price of 5000 call option. So Implied volatility is the relative rate at which price of the nifty/stock changes with reference to that particular strike price Different strikes will be having different implied volatility numbers. Implied volatility is a main part of option pricing. Premium of an option consist of intrinsic value and time value.
What is intrinsic value?
Simple, if Nifty is trading at 5000 and 4900 call costs 150 Rupees, then 5000- 4900 =100 is the intrinsic value and rest of 50 is the time value. When implied volatility is high, there is higher possibility for a good trend/ price movement. It can also be called as expected volatility till the contract expires. There will be increase in implied volatility, when market is expecting for something, like any economic event/ important results etc. hence it will also reflect in the price of option.
Means if 5000 call is trading at 150 Rs at 30 % implied volatility, When that "expectation is over" and guess Implied volatility comes down to 15 % , option price will fall to 75 RS (imagine there is no change in Nifty index price). Hence implied volatility is a very important factor in option pricing and option trader need to be cautious about changes in Implied volatility. Bear market will be having higher implied volatility than the bull market, because falling prices makes people more emotional than the rising price.
OTHER DEFINATION
The definition of Put-Call Ratio (PCR) is as follows:
The ratio of the volume of put options traded to the volume of call options traded, which is used as an indicator of investor sentiment (bullish or bearish).
1 group of thought says that a high PCR means more number of Puts have been written and markets should go ahead. Another school of thought says the converse.
Lets go by the data in hand for past 1 year.The market has bottomed when PCR was around 0.8-0.9 and topped when it was 1.2 or above.
I have marked in black the instances where the PCR was above 1.2. At this point of time, the market remains flat for a day or 2 by which time the PCR comes down to lower level or the market tanks.
1. Which option should you buy? with high iv or low iv?
2. how will you consider that iv is extreamly high or low?
While knowing the effect volatility has on option price behavior can help cushion against losses, it can also add a nice bonus to trades that are winning. The trick is to understand the price-volatility dynamic - the historical relationship between directional changes of the underlying and directional changes in volatility. Fortunately, this relationship in equity markets is easy to understand and quite reliable. (To lean more on price volatility, check out Price Volatility Vs. Leverage.)
The Price-Volatility Relationship
A price chart of the S&P CNX NIFTY and the implied volatility index (VIX) for options that trade on the S&P CNX NIFTY shows there is an inverse relationship. As Figure 1 demonstrates, when the price of the S&P CNX NIFTY (top plot) is moving lower, implied volatility (lower plot) is moving higher, and vice versa. (Charts are an essential tool for tracking the markets. Learn about the chart that many investors use to interpret volatility and place well-timed trades; read Range Bar Charts: A Different View Of The Markets.)
Figure 1: S&P CNX NIFTY daily price chart and implied volatility (VIX) daily price chart. Price and VIX move inversely. Buying calls at market bottoms, for example, amounts to paying very rich premiums (loaded with implied volatility) that can evaporate as market fears subside with market upturns. This often undermines call buyers' profit performance.
The Impacts of Price and Volatility Changes on Options
The table below summarizes the important dynamics of this relationship, indicating with "+" and "-" signs how movement in the underlying and associated movement in implied volatility (IV) each impacts the four types of outright positions. For example, there are two positions that have "+/+" in a particular condition, which means they experience positive impact from both price and volatility changes, making these positions ideal in that condition: Long puts are affected positively from a fall in S&P CNX NIFY but also from the corresponding rise in implied volatility, and short puts receive a positive impact from both price and volatility with a rise in the S&P CNX NIFTY corresponding to a fall in implied volatility. (Learn the effect volatility has on option prices. Check out The Price-Volatility Relationship: Avoiding Negative Surprises.)
Table below Impact of price and volatility changes on long and short option positions. A “+” mark indicates positive impact and a “-“ mark indicates a detrimental impact. Those marked with "+/+" indicate the ideal position for the given market condition.
But in the opposite to their "ideal" conditions, the long put and short put experience the worst possible combination of effects, marked by "-/-". The positions showing a mixed combination ("+/-" or "-/+") receive a mixed impact, meaning price movement and changes in implied volatility work in a contradictory fashion. Here is where you find your volatility surprises.
Remember from The Table that a long call suffers from a fall in implied volatility, even though it profits from a rise in price (indicated by "+/-"). AND table below shows that the VIX levels plunge as the market moves higher: Fear is abating, reflected in a declining VIX, leading to falling premium levels, even though rising prices is lifting call premium prices. Due to website address written on chart i am not posting chart here. you may see chart on website.
PRICE VILATILITY DYNAMIC PRICE VOLATILITY DYNAMIC
POSITION RISE IN NIFTY/FALL IN IV FALL IN NIFTY/ RISE IN IV
LONG CALLS +/- -/+
LONG PUTS -/- +/+
SHORT CALLS -/+ +/-
SHORT PUTS +/+ -/-
Long Calls at Market Bottoms Are "Expensive"
In the example above, the market-bottom call buyer ends up purchasing very "expensive" options that in effect have already priced-in an upward market move. The premium can decline dramatically due to the falling levels of implied volatility, counteracting the positive impact of a rise in price, leaving the unsuspecting call buyer miffed over why the price did not appreciate as anticipated.
The Bottom Line
Even if you correctly forecast a market rebound and attempt to profit by buying an option, you may not receive the profits you were expecting. The fall in implied volatility at market rebounds can cause negative surprises by counteracting the positive impact of a rise in price. On the other hand, buying puts at market tops has the potential to provide some positive surprises as falling prices push implied volatility levels higher, adding additional potential profit to a long put bought very "cheaply." Being aware of the price-volatility dynamic and its relation to your option position can significantly affect your trading performance.Using Implied Volatility to Determine Strategy
You've probably heard that you should buy undervalued options and sell overvalued options. While this process is not as easy as it sounds, it is a great methodology to follow when selecting an appropriate option strategy. Your ability to properly evaluate and forecast implied volatility will make the process of buying cheap options and selling expensive options that much easier.
When forecasting implied volatility, there are four things to consider:
Make sure you can determine whether implied volatility is high or low and whether it is rising or falling. Remember, as implied volatility increases, option premiums become more expensive. As implied volatility decreases, options become less expensive. As implied volatility reaches extreme highs or lows, it is likely to revert back to its mean.
If you come across options that yield expensive premiums due to high implied volatility, understand that there is a reason. Check the news to see what caused such high company expectations and high demand for the options. It is not uncommon to see implied volatility plateau ahead of earnings announcements, merger and acquisition rumors, product approvals and other news events. Because this is when a lot of price movement takes place, the demand to participate in such events will drive option prices price higher. Keep in mind that after the market-anticipated event occurs, implied volatility will collapse and revert back to its mean.
When you see options trading with high implied volatility levels, consider selling strategies. As option premiums become relatively expensive, they are less attractive to purchase and more desirable to sell. Such strategies include covered calls, naked puts, short straddles and credit spreads. By contrast, there will be times when you discover relatively cheap options, such as when implied volatility is trading at or near relative to historical lows. Many option investors use this opportunity to purchase long-dated options and look to hold them through a forecasted volatility increase.
When you discover options that are trading with low implied volatility levels, consider buying strategies. With relatively cheap time premiums, options are more attractive to purchase and less desirable to sell. Such strategies include buying calls, puts, long straddles and debit spreads.
Conclusion
In the process of selecting strategies, expiration months or strike price, you should gauge the impact that implied volatility has on these trading decisions to make better choices. You should also make use of a few simple volatility forecasting concepts. This knowledge can help you avoid buying overpriced options and avoid selling under priced ones.
This article is taken from www.nsetopper.com for educational purpose.
NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 02 APRIL
As I told you that nifty will give respect at least on 200 DMA one time and it should not fall directly. It reversed smartly from around 200 DMA and closed at 5293 level.
As per slow stochastic indicator, S&P CNX NIFTY was in over sold level. However, recent price moves on 30/03/2012 indicates trend reversal and stock may rise upto 5365 in near future. Why 5365 level only why not 5400-5500-5600 again. Yes my dear there is a reason behind this. 5365 is a 61.8% retresment level and option data is in favoring with this level.
Bullish gap up Candlestick pattern has formed on S&P CNX NIFTY chart on 30/03/2012
But now the question is that will this rally be continue. As per chart it is showing trend reversal of last six week falling trend, but data is indicating something. Until unless Nifty close above 5440 rally cannot be confirmed. RSI has given a breakout on its falling trend line, nifty can move up in near term. Further I see stretch up to 5365 in Nifty. Maximum stretch up to 5440. Investors should be alert around 5365 level and there will be no trading zone between 5365-5440 level. From there a fall upto 4950-4900 is much awaited on charts.
yesterday 5300 CE added 101750 shares in open interest and 5300 PE added 666700 shares in open interest. will create a resistance for nifty. When market was open on Friday in morning 5300 CE IV was greater than 5300 PE IV, but at the end of session 5300 PE IV was greater than CE IV.
Highest open interest seen in 5000PE and 5400 CE Indicating a trading range for April session. INDIA volatility index chart suggesting the same expected range for April session.
According to current local political situation market will be volatile again like march series.
Fii activity in equity market +962.65cr
Fii activity in future market -500.67cr
Dii activity in equity market -167.32cr
SEE THE CHART BELOW FOR CONFIRMATION
Disclamer:-
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