NIFTY VS DOW JONES

NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE SCENARIO

The entire move from 2008 if you will see in the chart below you will find that there is lack of impulsive wave because i am not seeing any impulsive wave count in 1,2,3,4,5. If this is not impulsive wave then it is clear now that it is  corrective wave and nifty has been forming complex correction pattern since 2008 on weekly chart. 

In current situation just see the hourly chart give below, from 5480 to till now move is also forming in triple complex correction. I am giving two scenario of wave count below.

In scenario 1 is valid then it has completed its triple complex correction. In this move b wave has not fallen more than 38.2%. Therefore 38.2% of the move from 5970 to till now is coming at 6118. If this count is valid then market will break this level and will increase more dipper correction. Any break below 6080 will confirm that this up move was bull trap. And,

If the scenario 2 is valid than nifty must protect this level and will move more higher level towards 6300 in very short term.
Recommendation- Only Intraday trading is advisable for few days.

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KEEP PATIENCE FOR 6250 NOW

NIFTY UPDATE FOR 14 MAY

Why do you people trade with your expectation when technical analysis is wonderful tools to predict the possible trend. You can also be a good trader. Nifty Eyes Multi Level Money Making Club is ready to make you smart trader cum analyst. Choice is yours.  As I have given alert yesterday about this reversal in price pattern. Nifty fell highest in 2013. Only two stocks  NTPC and Power Grid close with marginal positive otherwise all stocks in nifty 50 group closed with negative bias. The mood is completely bearish now. Nifty retraced 23.6% in a single days of its previous up move. Now next support is around 5928 and after that 5871. Below 5871 direct fall up to 5400. 5830-5840 is immediate resistance for nifty.

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BIGGEST FALL IN 2013

BULLS GONE BEARS ON

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NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 13 MAY

Frequently buying by foreign institutional investors, by supporting  firm trend in global markets and IIP data showing a surge in industrial production in March lifted indices Sensex and Nifty up by over 2.5% last week. Sensex ended the week with a gain of 507 points or 2.6% at 20,083, a 14-week high, the Nifty hit its best levels in more than two years, closing at 6095 gaining 151 points or 2.5% along with midcap and smallcap stocks too jumped higher on strong buying support, the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices moved up by around 2.3%. FMCG heavyweight which hit a new high last week ended stronger by 6.7%. IT stocks were back again and successfully gain with some encouraging economic data from U.S. side. Auto sector had given strong jump too with market. Tata motors was the star performer in Auto sector gained 8% last week. While Coal India declined 5.7% and Sun Pharma was down 5% last week.

In economic news India’s industrial production rose 2.5% in march 2013 as compare to a revised 0.46% growth in February 2013.

After two days consolidation Nifty gave breakout and went above 6100 and closed above 6100 on Saturday special session. Bias is strong positive. Nifty has not given any single day closing below previous bar since it reversed from 5480 level in this up leg. According to Nifty daily chart momentum indicators are in overbought zone indicating nifty may tired any time. According to nifty hourly chart rising wage/ending diagonal pattern has formed on the chart, indicating that price may face resistance very soon and may turn its face towards downside. I still assume that This up move is a corrective wave according to wave principle. Break below the trend line which is drawn on hourly chart may drag nifty towards 5880 level but remember one thing that we have not got any price wise sell or reversal signal. Highest open interest in 6200 call indicating upper boundary for the current series.

In the last session FIIs bought 11104 contracts of index future worth Rs. 337.34  cores with increasing in open interest. As nifty Future was up 50 points and open interest increased in index future indicating that fresh long position was created in Friday’s session.

LAST   HIGH - 6105  LAST LOW - 6045
WEEKLY HIGH - 6105 WEEKLY LOW - 5867
5 DMA DAILY - 6046
20 DMA DAILY- 5844

50 DMA DAILY- 5783

200 DMA DAILY- 5703 

Several top  companies quarterly result still to come out in coming week, investors are advisable to tread cautiously  over the next few sessions. Global factors will continue to make an impact on the Indian market.

Sustained inflow of funds from FIIs was one of the major contributors for the market's rise to multi-month highs last week. And the trend is likely to continue for a while, But we are getting negative divergence sign on momentum indicators, giving warning sign. However we have  no significant negative news is around to warrant a sell-off.

Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Bank of Baroda , Bajaj Auto, and Reliance Infra  will announce their quarterly results during the course of next week. The data on consumer price inflation for rural and urban India for April, to be released on Monday and it will set the further trend for the market in the beginning part of week. Encouraging report on industrial production of march will help keep the mood positive for a while but technical indicators are giving overbought indication so mood may turn cautious and even bearish any time, as no big positive triggers are in the market ahead. A positive close on Wall street may set up a steady start for the Asian Markets on Monday. In the latter part of week market may remain into sideways to negative. In the below Advance -decline chart market is showing in up trend but advance -decline ratio is in negative divergence indicating possible reversal in near term.

chart source www.icharts.in

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NIFTY LATEST ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE 12 MAY 2012

ACCORDING TO NIFTY HOURLY CHART ENDING DIAGONAL PATTERN HAS SEEN WITH NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE ON MOMENTUM INDICATORS INDICATING NIFTY MAY REVERSE SOON. BUT I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY CONFIRMATION ON PRICE WISE. BREAK OF LOWER TREND LINE OF DIAGONAL PATTERN WILL GIVE FIRST CONFIRMATION AND THERE WILL BE OCCUR A CHANCE TO DRAG NIFTY 5880-5860 LEVEL. HIGHEST OPEN INTEREST IN 6200 CALL OPTION ALSO INDICATING UPPER BOUNDARY AND SUPPORTING REVERSAL VIEW.

ACCORDING TO NIFTY WEEKLY CHART THERE IS ALSO A WAGE PATTERN IS VISIBLE IN NIFTY A-B-C-D-E PATTERN.

BANK NIFTY:-

ON BANK NIFTY CHART BREAK OF LONG TREND LINE WILL DRAG NIFTY TOWARDS 12000 LEVEL.

NIFTY CRUCIAL UPDATE FOR 09 MAY

  Nifty is at make or break situation.6093 level will create trend changer level. If nifty does not reverse from this level then expect nonstop rally up to 6260-70 level. As per nifty today's price movement it seems that breakout will happen towards upside in spite of negative divergence on momentum indicators. On weekly chart rising wage pattern is also attracting nifty upside.   

Lets see......

ORCHID CHEMICAL

NIFTY X- RAY REPORT FOR 08 MAY

The markets closed with solid gains in last session with FMCG being the best performer up by 2.05%. The Sensex closed at 19888.95, up 215.31 points from its previous close, and the Nifty shut shop at 6043.55, up 72.50 points. The CNX Midcap index was up by 0.89% and closed at 8039.69, while the CNX Smallcap index gained 0.85% in today's trade. The market breadth was positive with advances at 617 against declines of 428 on the NSE.

Nifty hit three months high today and gave solid gain and closed above 6000 level. A rising trend line support is coming at 5970 level now.  As per EOD candle stick pattern Bullish Gap up candlestick pattern has formed on daily chart today which is indicating strong up side trend in short term. As per nifty Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), it is at 68 level and it has come in overbought zone.  As per nifty slow stochastic indicator it is placed in overbought zone. The recent price pattern on nifty daily chart had given strong bullish signal from 5477 with increasing RSI towards upside in near term.  Nifty has strong resistance near 6080-6103. NIFTY is in buy mode. But momentum indicator is placed in overbought zone and indicating negative divergence.

Nifty 6000 put added huge fresh 2,268,950 fresh contracts in open interest. As nifty up by 72 points and open interest increasing in 6000 put indicating that nifty will remain above 6000 level confidently in Wednesday session and this level is ready to give support nifty in tomorrow session. 

According to the data available from the exchanges, FIIs bought index future worth rs 540 cores and open interest increased by 8.8% indicating that fresh long position has been created by FIIs today. 

LAST   HIGH - 6050  LAST LOW - 5982
WEEKLY HIGH - 6050 WEEKLY LOW - 5867
5 DMA DAILY - 5978
20 DMA DAILY- 5763

50 DMA DAILY- 5771

200 DMA DAILY- 5691

Advance / Decline Stocks above / below 50 DMA Breakouts: Bullish / Bearish Stocks gaining / losing >>> 5% Stocks Oversold / Overbought Stocks at 20 day HI / LO Stocks at 52 week HI / LO

617 / 428 596 / 449 38 / 1 39 / 9 23 / 128 231 / 60 39 / 24

As I have given you indication that nifty is ready to kiss 6040 level. It kissed today and ready to roar next up move But bulls beware it is in final leg of up move. 6103 level will create a strong resistance for nifty and bulls will need extra power to cross and sustained above this level. nifty may kiss 6289 very soon but before i expect a 150-200 points correction. Nifty has given strong momentum today and rising with lower trend line support. All momentum indicators are in overbought zone and some are showing negative divergence. 

Short term stop loss for long trade at 5990 spot price if broken then expect 5930

Up side target expected - 6070-6103
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NIFTY POSSIBLE PRICE ACTION ACCORDING TO ELLIOTT WAVE

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Nifty Update for 07 May

Nifty fell just after Rbi policy yesterday but soon it recovered and manage its low which was created just after policy. Today nifty again gave respect around that level and closed at 5971. Support at lower level since two days indicating that once more minor move up to 6050-70 is due in the market. Metal index ultimately woke up and help nifty to close at higher level. Nifty 

As per wave perspective today's fall seems completed b wave and c wave is rising from 5930 level for the possible target 6050-70. Nifty 5900 put added 481,750 fresh contracts in open interest indicating that 5900 put has been written today. If tomorrow 6000 call open interest decrease then it will be cleared that nifty will touch 6050 level. Political uncertainty will increase the volatility in day trading.  

NIFTY UPDATE

Exhaustion gap

Lots of people would have been expecting a strong rate cut by RBI but technical indicators are giving warning. Lets analyze what is that. First of all we have seen a exhaustion gap on hourly chart which is first reversal signal. An exhaustion gap in technical analysis is a price gap on a chart that usually appears on a strong uptrend and it comes at the end of up move. An exhaustion gap is an early warning sign that the current uptrend is losing steam and it is ready for a major retracement back to a reasonable level.  When the gap occurs this is a sign that the stock is tired and is losing its upward momentum. If the next bar close below the first bar, there is a good indication that that an exhaustion gap is in play. Under this type of situation stop loss can be placed above the high of the first bar and the rest is history is available for see as example.  The stock should immediately begin to fall precipitously without any retracements.  

See this Advance Decline chart. When the price was falling below 5500 and making new low Advance Decline chart was not making new low. Now negative divergence has occured  on daily chart and giving warning sign and it seems that the up move from 5477 to 5960 is corrective in nature and may reverse soon. Now the every eyes are on the RBI meet. As Nifty has given flat closing so there is no changing in technical levels. Nifty is making base around 5870 spot price levels since four days. So breaking this down side base will be first strong reversal sign other wise sideways action is expected till RBI meets. Breaking this four days consolidation range will give a fresh direction. Low risk trading opportunity is coming for option traders. After breaking range minimum 200 points rally is expected either side. Buy 5800 put option and 6000 call option equal quantity around 50 rs price. If impressive Rate cut happen then Market may touch its previous top till 6100 and if RBI fail to full fill market expectation then fast fall may be happen. Domestic political uncertainty may provoke the downside move.

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A SHIFT FROM MENTAL ANALYSIS

 A SHIFT FROM MENTAL ANALYSIS

 There are two groups of traders one is technical traders and another is individual mental traders. 90% traders are on the individual mental analysis side and only 10% traders are technical analysis side.   10% technical traders earn money of 90% mental individual traders they lose, because they trade with their expectation. Often you would have seen the FIIs and DIIs trading data daily aftermarket hour in evening. If FIIs are net buyer on particular days, DIIs are sellers on that day. IT means smart money always buy emotional traders trade.  In India most of people use “fatka” ( fling) in their trading and do adventure with their capital. I don’t understand that if technical analysis works so well, why do people shift their focus to mental analysis of themselves, meaning their own individual trading psychology?  Many traders are able to make some money when their setups occur with their expectation, but then give their profits back when the market goes into CONSOLIDATION.

If only you could know when the market was going to be choppy;  that one piece of technical information could possibly turn you into a profitable trader! Choppy markets chop up your profits. Sometimes learning when NOT to trade is just as important as knowing when to trade. Knowing your trading signals and when to trade is your "offense." Knowing when NOT to take your trading signals is your "defense." To win at the trading game you need both a good offense and a good defense.

You can learn all about it from Nifty Eyes multi-level money making club "How to Avoid Choppy Markets and Get in on Major Trends." Technical analysis can help you by giving you proven filters you can add to ANY trading method telling you when your trading setup is likely NOT to work.  But, just as importantly, it also teaches you how to anticipate the end of choppy conditions and the beginning of new trends ... therefore getting you early into new mega trends!

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NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 29 APRIL 2013 WITH WEEKLY VIEW

The Indian stock market posted solid gains during the truncated week (April 22-26, 2013), with investors indulging in some strong buying, betting on hopes the Reserve Bank will cut interest rate by following a significant drop in inflation in March. Some impressive results from India Inc., strong inflow of funds from foreign institutional investors and a fairly steady trend in global markets too contributed to the up move.

The markets closed with moderate declines in last session with realty being the worst performer down by -2.28%. The Sensex closed at 19286.72, down 120 points from its previous close, and the Nifty shut shop at 5871.45, down 44.85 points. The CNX Midcap index was down by 0.81% and closed at 7715.15, while the CNX Smallcap index loosen 1.33% in yesterday's trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 355 against declines of 666 on the NSE.

Nifty gave a breakout above falling trend line and closed above 5900 psychological level but it fell again below 5900 level next day. AS per EOD candle stick pattern Bearish harami candlestick pattern has formed on daily chart which is indicating reversal in short term trend. As per nifty Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), it is at 61 level and it has turned its face towards downside indicating trend reversal also.  As per nifty slow stochastic indicator it is placed in overbought zone. The recent price pattern on nifty daily chart hadd given strong bullish signal from 5477 with increasing RSI towards upside in near term.  Nifty has strong resistance near 5971. NIFTY is in buy mode. But momentum indicator is placed in overbought zone so short term reversal may happen.

Nifty 5900 put added fresh 345,307 fresh contracts in open interest and 5900 call added 422,500 contracts in open interest. Nifty 5900 call total OI is standing at highest no on the call side with at 4589400 contracts, indicating upside boundary in current month further. As nifty was up by 44 points and addition in 5900 call and put both indicating a volatile move around this level. Put call ratio is at 1.05  indicating bull side.

According to the data available from the exchanges, FIIs have bought shares worth over Rs 3000 crore in the current calendar month. Till the middle of last week, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of over Rs 58,500 cores this calendar year.

In the last session FIIs bought 10028 contracts of index future worth Rs. 290 cores and open interest increased by 101%. As nifty Future was down 28 points and open interest increased in index future seems that profit booking has started after a good jump.  Fii bought shares in cash segment of 224.75 cores.

LAST   HIGH - 5907  LAST LOW - 5860
WEEKLY HIGH - 5924 WEEKLY LOW - 5500
5 DMA DAILY - 5848
20 DMA DAILY- 5674

50 DMA DAILY- 5765

200 DMA DAILY- 5671

Stocks above / below 50 DMA Breakouts: Bullish / Bearish Stocks gaining / losing > 5% Stocks Oversold / Overbought Stocks at 20 day HI / LO Stocks at 52 week HI / LO

405 / 616 16 / 1 16 / 24 24 / 77 111 / 68 35 / 34

Nifty has given strong momentum in last seven days in a perfect channel pattern on hourly chart. We have seen the channel breakdown on hourly chart in last session, indicating termination of previous trend, But I don,t have clear confirmation that trend will reverse. However i assume tread line as a very powerful indicator in technical analysis. 20 period simple moving average on hourly chart is at 5863 and we found that nifty took support exact at this level in last session. Therefore 5863 level will be a very short term trend changing level. Any break below this level may drag nifty 5763 and after that 5661 level. Next week Investors eye will be on the monetary policy review from the Reserve Bank of India, shares from interest rate sensitive automobile, banking and realty sectors will be in focus right through next week, again a truncated one due to a holiday on Wednesday of MAJDOOR DIWASH (May day).

The Reserve Bank of India is scheduled to review its next monetary policy on Friday, 3rd May 2013. It is widely expected that RBI will announce a rate cut, by considering a substantial decline in Wholesale Price Inflation in March. How ever RBI in its last monetary policy had cut repo rate by 25 basis points. According to the data released by the government on April 15, 2013, the wholesale price index eased to 5.96%, its lowest level in 40 months.

In economic news the Market Economics will release India Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday (1 May). And the data on India's services sector activity in April will be released on Friday. On the global front, the outcome of the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting and disappointing U.S GDP data will impact the mood of market next week.
In short a volatile move is going to happen next week.

Short term stop loss for long trade at 5860 spot price if broken then expect 5760

Up side target expected - 5970 if broken then 6170 expected.
For larger view click on chart

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NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 26 APRIL

The Sensex closed at 19406.85 up 229.49 points from its previous close, and the Nifty closed at 5916, up 79.40 points. The CNX Midcap index was up by 0.56% while the CNX IT index was down by 1.56% in today's trade. The market breadth was positive with advances at 549 against declines of 477 on the NSE. The Bank index was up by 1.46% in last session and closed at 12726.85. HDFC jumped 5.46% highest on nifty 50 group while HCLTECH was the biggest looser with -2.29% in today's session.

Nifty gave a breakout above falling trend line and closed above 5900 psychological level and nifty hit one month high. AS per EOD candle stick pattern bullish gap up candle stick pattern has formed today. As per nifty Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), it is at 65 level and indicating very strong strenght towards up side.  As per nifty slow stochastic indicator it has placed now in overbought zone. The recent price pattern on nifty daily chart has given strong bullish signal from 5477 with increasing RSI towards upside in near term.  Nifty has strong resistance near 5971. NIFTY is in buy mode.

Nifty 5900 put of May series added fresh 2,176,700 fresh contracts in open interest. As nifty was up by 79.40 points and addition in 5900 put option indicating that 5900 put has been written.  Put call ratio is at 1.22  indicating positive sentiment. 

FIIs bought 125227 contracts of index future worth Rs. 3716 cores and open interest decreased by -31%. AS the F&O expiry was today so this data is not important but it is indicating huge shorts covering.  Fii bought equity in cash segment of 1449 cores.

LAST   HIGH - 5924  LAST LOW - 5853
WEEKLY HIGH - 5924 WEEKLY LOW - 5500
5 DMA DAILY - 5812
20 DMA DAILY- 5612

50 DMA DAILY- 5766

200 DMA DAILY- 5668

Advance / Decline Stocks above / below 50 DMA Breakouts: Bullish / Bearish Stocks gaining / losing > 5% Stocks Oversold / Overbought Stocks at 20 day HI / LO Stocks at 52 week HI / LOW

549 / 477 442 / 584 27 / 2 32 / 11 20 / 133 204 / 60 29 / 26

Nifty opened gap up above trend line and closed above 5900. As we are seeing very fast recovery so i hope there are still some more potential towards up side is due in market from current level. AS long as nifty doesn't close below its previous day low price my up side view will remain positive. Lots of nifty heavy weight company is at about to breakout level now and if breakout happen then it may take nifty more higher.  Nifty retraced 78.6% till now and face resistance around this level. As nifty hourly chart showing very overbought so 5950-5970 level may create hurdle for nifty and a minor correction up to 5790 can't be ruled out.

Short term stop loss for long trade at 5850 spot price

Target expected - 5970 if broken then 6170 expected.

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NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 25 APRIL

The Sensex closed at 19179.35 up 9 points from its previous close, and the Nifty closed at 5836.90, up 2 points. The CNX Midcap index was down by 0.39% while the CNX Smallcap index gained 0.20% in yesterday's trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 498 against declines of 537 on the NSE. The Bank index was down by -0.26% in last session and closed at 12543.40. Bajajauto jumped 2.93% highest on nifty 50 group while jindalsteel was the biggest looser with -3.93% in last session.

Nifty closed in positive sentiment also in yesterday trade up by 2 points and maintained its level above 5800.  As per nifty Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), it is at 61 level and indicating that it has more scope to move up. The recent price pattern on nifty daily chart had given strong bullish signal from 5477 with increasing RSI towards upside in near term.  Nifty has strong resistance near 5971. I will continue my upside view untill nifty break 5790 level in very short term. 61.8% retracement level is at 5870 which is minor hurdle for nifty. On the down side fresh short position created only below 5790 for the target of 5720.  NIFTY is in buy mode.

Nifty 5800 put added fresh 1394400 contracts in open interest. As nifty was up by 2 points and addition in 5800 put option indicating that 5800 put was being writing.  Put call ratio is at 1.22  indicating positive sentiment. 

FIIs bought 32150 contracts of index future worth Rs.930 cores and open interest increased by 8594  contracts, as nifty future was up by 10 points and open interest increased indicating that FIIs have added fresh long position in yesterday trade.

LAST   HIGH - 5844  LAST LOW - 5791
WEEKLY HIGH - 5844 WEEKLY LOW - 5500
5 DMA DAILY - 5766
20 DMA DAILY- 5649

50 DMA DAILY- 5765

200 DMA DAILY- 5665

Nifty is in up trend in very short term point of view. Nifty jumped and sustaining above 50% retracement level and it is very close to 61.8% level which is at 5869 from its previous down leg. As i have indicated you in my past post that ending diagonal triangle pattern was formed on nifty daily chart and break above the pattern will give a fast movement. Nifty recovered almost 350 points in just four days. Short term bias are highly positive and it is in buy on every dip mode until nifty break 5720 level. Above 5669 we may see nonstop rally upto 5970 level. We have seen very fast recovery in last week. this type of action generally happen in x wave.  RSI on hourly chart is in overbought zone so giving a hope that price of nifty may tired at any level and a correction of 80-100 point is expected also. here. SGX nifty indicating at 5905. expect gap up opening around this level tomorrow.

Short term stoploss for long trade at 5790 spot price

Target expected - 5970 if broken then 6170 expected.

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