NIFTY SHORT TERM UPDATE.

People across the world are interpreted Bernanke speech positive which is simply acting as a catalyst for the trend to resume on upside. Consolidation drama is over now. As I wrote in my previous post that after completing consolidation market will move upside. We gave our first target 5977. I hope touching it tomorrow. After that 6150 is possible target. keep little patience. Fresh entry can be take in bank nifty, breakout is due here.
Enjoy.....................
cheers !!!

NIFTY LATEST ELLIOTT WAVE PREDICTION AND CHART PATTERN

As we are clearly seeing that previous down leg from 6229 to 5566 is in five wave clear structure on daily chart. So we can assume that this up move is in corrective format and it might be in a-b-c format.  From wave perspective, as we are seeing prices reacted exactly from upper resistance level exact from 50%, it is difficult to say that wave b is over or is still ongoing. We have not confirm evidence that b wave as shown in chart near 5750 is completed or it will take few more days. But as per current chart structure it seems that one up move is due up to 6090 after that 6200 level.

Nifty recovered second time from 20 day moving average in last four days indicating 20 days moving average is providing good support in the market and it will provide direction for down side in very short term. Safe and less risky traders avoid positional trading. Do only intraday trading till nifty remain between 5905-5700. High volatility will hit stoploss on bothside in corrective wave. 

 In short, as long as 5700 is protected on closing basis our view over short term is positive with further confirmation above 5900 levels. For medium term we will maintain our target zone of 6100-6200 as long as 5700 protected on closing basis.

Lets see.

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DO DOUBLE ON EVERY 4 MONTHS. LETS SEE THE EXAMPLE.
MONTH             LOT                POINTS            INCOME
1                            1                      250                  12500
5                            2                      500                   25000
10                          4                    1000                   50000
15                          8                    2000                  100000
20                         16                   4000                  200000
25                         32                   8000                  400000

30                         64                16000                  800000

THIS EXAMPLE IS BASED ON 200 POINTS PER MONTH PER LOT.
INVESTMENT REQUIREMENT -RS.50000

NIFTY LATEST CHART PATTERN ( INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN)

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NIFTY UPDATE FOR 04 JULY

Market took four hours to hold 5760. Market may reverse from 5760 or 5690 level.There will be no positional trading zone between 5760 to 5690 level. Only intraday trading is advisable. 

Failure of sustaining above 5690 may create panic selling upto 5477 level and upmove towards 5980 and 6100 will get invalid. Therefore both side more than 200 points rally is awaiting in the market. Be alert huge volatile days ahead this month. Trade with minimum quantity.

 

NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE LATEST UPDATE

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NIFTY LATEST ELLIOTT WAVE STRUCTURE

Rising wage failed pattern. We have seen this rally as a corrective pattern. As we are seeing in the chart below that we have not found any five wave pattern in larger view therefore we can assume this pattern as a corrective double zig zag pattern. Nifty broke the lower trend line but soon it recovered in faster time frame indicating about double zig zag pattern. This type of rally may surprise many and price may hike again towards 6100-6200 in faster time frame before real correction start. Tsunami will come but it will take. Till than ride on bulls upto 6132.  

NIFTY LATEST UPDATE

HOURLY CHART IS SHOWING WITH LITTLE POSITIVE DIVERGENCE. STOCK MAY GIVE A TECHNICAL JUMP IN DOUBLE ZIG ZAG CORRECTION UPTO 5720.
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NIFTY UPDATE FOR 21 JUNE

  CHOTA BACHHA SAMAJH KE MUJHKO NA SATAANA RE............ DUBI DUBI DUB DUB...........
ENJOY  BEARS  CHEERS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MARKET BIGGEST FALL AFTER 2011.
SINCE SO MANY TIMES I WAS WRITING ABOUT THIS DOWNFALL BUT YOU DID NOT BELIEVE THIS TIME ALSO.
RECENTLY ON 17 TH JUNE JUST THREE DAYS BACK I POSTED THIS CHART SCENARIO. JUST HAVE A LOOK......

5650 CAME TODAY.......
Now what next...........................

Nifty 5700 call option added fresh 4227250 contracts in open interest. Nifty 5600 call added 1955300 fresh contracts in open interest indicating huge call writing has created into the system. FIIs sold index future worth Rupees 1071 crores and open interest increased by 16.2%. Huge fresh short position has been created into the system. FIIs sold shares worth Rs. 2094 crores in cash market today. Earlier bullish island reversal pattern had formed on the nifty chart but today again it formed bearish island pattern. As per nifty weekly chart if nifty break and give a close below 5630 than 5332 is next support on nifty. As I had warned you that upmove is not sustainable and nifty reversed from that level. Over all sentiment is bearish. 5332 is coming soon.
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NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE SCENARIO

Nifty fell exactly up to 76.4% retracement level and reversed sharply. But what is the next ? Is the major trend has changed now or still remain in negative. Posting below two chart to understand the possible pattern.
According to my wave count 5884 to 5934 will provide good selling opportunity. This view will be invalid if nifty cross above 5934 level. If nifty cross above 5934 we will post another wave scenario.
click on chart for its larger view.

 

POSSIBLE ELLIOTT WAVE DIRECTION ON NIFTY

NIFTY LATEST PATTERN

S&P CNX NIFTY is trending down for 5 days or in other words , the stock is daily closing at a lower price than previous days close and closed today below 200 day moving average and 61.8% retracement level. Any more closing below 200 and 61.8% level may create speed fall towards 5630. Industrial output growth crawls at 2% in April. Today's high and low will provide further short term direction. A gapup opening above today's high can be bullish but chances are very low. 275 stocks traded today below 50 day moving averages. 61 stocks in BSE 500 index touch 52-week low;Nifty and BSE 500 indices trading below 200 daily moving average. Nifty 5800 call added 2080350 fresh contracts today indicating huge call writing has happen today. Yesterday 5800 call added 1367900 contracts. Total 3448250 contracts added in open interest in last two days, indicating 5800 level will create big obstacle for bulls. Now lets see what happened in today's trade. FIIs sold first time in 4 digit figure in cash market in 2013. Nifty tried to cross 5790 level but failed again and again and closed below 200 level, indicating more pain is due in our market. Nifty weekly chart confirming rising wage pattern. Break below lower trend line of falling wage will create strong bearish momentum. Head and shoulder pattern attracting nifty towards 5600 level.

 

NIFTY SLIDING TOWARDS 5600

 
Nifty took stop at 200 days moving average 5781. Not a good close for bulls today.
Any two consecutive close below 5781 will drag nifty directly up to lower trend line as drawn in chart below. In our earlier post we wrote about this possible pattern which is shown in the chart below. FIIs exited from all long position in index future till yesterday and today fresh short position made. They sold index future worth Rs.1857.98 crores and open interest increased by 11.5% indicating huge fresh short position created today. FIIs sold such huge amount in a single day first time in 2013. Highly bearish day expected ahead. Nifty may slide up to 5600. Below 5600 Blood Bath.

Just see the weekly chart of Nifty below, since 2012 prices were facing the strong resistance of the multiyear upward sloping trend line and moved lower two times. In last month of May 2013 prices have found resistance of the same trend line for third time and turned on downside as shown in the chart below. Momentum indicator RSI showing the strong negative divergence indicating strong down trend ahead. If RSI break below blue trend line as drawn on RSI as lower trend line, we will see fast downtrend.
We are seeing head and shoulder pattern also on hourly chart which neck line has already broken and predicting target 5477. As long as 5931 is protected no body can stop nifty to fall upto 5600 level.
Nifty 5800 call option added 1367900 fresh contracts in open interest indicating 5800 call has been written today indicating nifty will face resistance above 5800 for tomorrow session.
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NIFTY UPDATE FOR 11 JUNE

 The rupee hit a record low against the dollar on Monday, escalating worries about the country's current account deficit and complicating the task for policy makers looking to revive an economy that grew at its slowest in a decade in 2012/13. The finance ministry's chief economic adviser Raghuram Rajan said the rupee's fall was a temporary phenomenon, echoing comments from government leaders, and added the administration was taking measures to tackle the imbalance in the current account. While analysts agree that the rupee has run into a broader dollar rally that is also pressuring other emerging currencies such as the Indonesian rupiah, India's currency is seen as more vulnerable due to the country's high fiscal and current account deficits.

A weaker currency could undermine recent fiscal and economic measures by the government that helped spark a surge in foreign inflows. It also complicates the central bank's campaign to cut interest rates in a country still facing the prospect of losing its investment-grade ratings. "A weak rupee can revive a number of past woes, upset the easing inflation trajectory, raise CAD financing concerns and up the currency risks for offshore borrowers. This might also raise another hurdle for the central bank for cutting rates," said Radhika Rao, an economist with DBS Bank in Singapore. The Reserve Bank of India is next due to review monetary policy on June 17, and many economists and traders expect it to pause in its monetary easing after cutting rates by 25 basis points in each of its past three meetings.

The rupee fell to a record low of 58.17 on Monday, according to the latest available Thomson Reuters data, as the dollar gained on data showing China's economy losing momentum and after a reasonably healthy pace of U.S. job creation renewed expectations the Federal Reserve might curb its asset purchases later this year. The Indian currency is running neck to neck with the Korean won as the worst performer among emerging Asian currencies in the year to date. The tumble comes as the Indian economy appears to have better momentum than it did exactly a year ago when the rupee last hit a record low, but still faces a long road to recovery. The most immediate risk centres around financing the current account deficit. That measure had been expected to have narrowed this year from a record 6.7 percent of gross domestic product in the October-December quarter due to falling prices for gold and oil - the country's two biggest imports. Worries over the current account have been exacerbated by foreign investor net sales of more than $2.5 billion in domestic debt over the previous 12 sessions, spurred by concerns that the weaker rupee would erode returns.

Overseas investors have also been spooked by the prospect of an end to the Fed's quantitative easing, while for bond investors, the surge in U.S. Treasury 10-year yields since early May has reduced the yield differential with Indian debt. Finance ministry officials told Reuters the falling rupee was discussed in a previously scheduled meeting on Monday with market regulators and the central bank. "The FII (foreign institutional investors) capital outflows are likely to continue for next 10-15 days," an official said adding the rupee could touch even 59 against the dollar if the outflows continued. Overseas funds are vital to India's economy as a surge in net foreign buying since 2012 - totalling almost $50 billion in both debt and stocks - has been key in financing the deficit. "The current account deficit is large, which needs large amount of capital inflows. The dependence on short-term debt is resulting in the hammering of the rupee," said Sujan Hajra, chief economist at Anand Rathi Securities.

source:- sify finance

 

NIFTY UPDATE

Selling pressure is coming on high level. FIIs are selling index future continuously and Rupees making new high will give pressure in our Market. Midcap and Small cap index closed on negative note for the first time in last five trading sessions. This shows that along with large cap stocks, now mid cap stocks also participated in the fall. Stocks Declining is more than advancing. These all indicate for strong bearish trend is awaiting in our Indian Market. From medium term perspective Elliott wave theory suggested the start of next leg on downside in the broader market. As long as 5990/6000 is intact on upside bears will be upper hand. Any attempt on the upside will provide the bearish opportunity and prices should move lower towards 5850 or even lower. Positional traders may keep sl at 6000 on closing basis for short side.

NIFTY MOVING EXACTLY ACCORDING MY TECHNICAL PRIDICTION

Just see when and what i posted about nifty further direction:-

Posted on 20 May 2013

The correction in nifty today seems that nifty has completed its 3rd standard of correction and may move in b-B wave. If this wave count is valid then nifty should fall minimum up to 6059 and 5953 as indicated in the chart below. Below 6140 fresh short position can be created for the above mentioned target with 6229 as stop loss.

chart posted with this analysis,

ON 23 May chart posted

On 27 May chart posted

On 29 May

ON 2nd JUNE

What else clue you want. If you have still doubt my dear friend then listen my advice- please don't trade with your expectation and don't do adventure with your capital. 

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NIFTY LATEST UPDATE AND WEEK AHEAD

We have seen huge volatile session in last week as i have warned you in my Monday's post. In last 15 days we have seen more than 100 points fall three times but two times nifty recovered its losses. Will it recovered this time also ? Lets consider. The situation is little different. FIIs were net buyer in previous two fall but This time FIIs sold index future worth Rs.1827 crores indicating fall will not easily recovered. As per nifty daily chart prices has fallen sharply below 20 days moving averages with supporting momentum indicators. According to nifty hourly chart Expanding triangle trend line support is coming around 5960 level. If this level break nifty may drag towards 5907 level.  Economic news from across the globe will certainly put an impact on  the market's direction. With the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development forecasting a weak outlook for China and the European region respectively, global markets are likely to see some weak spells next week.
Trade cautiously. Huge volatile week ahead.

BANK NIFTY

TOP IS NEAR

Nifty top is very near. The maximum Stretch I am assuming up to 6290-6310. As we are seeing in hourly chart below that it seems that expanded triangle pattern has form. As per chart Analysis it is in its final leg of expansion and  If nifty enter above green trend line and if it close above this trend line as shown in picture below then there will be high possibilities that nifty may jump up to 6290-6310 level. After that a big fall is awaiting in market. And if nifty break below lower thick red trend  line then down move may stretched. In very short tern any slide below 6070 will increase the possibilities for downside. Trade cautiously. Weakness in rupees may flow water on bulls expectation.

  

WHAT TO DO IN NIFTY NOW

As you are seeing in chart below that it seems expanded triangle pattern formation has prepared on nifty hourly chart. But nifty is trading in very tight range due to concern of weakness in rupees. I would like to keep aside my self for some time from trading. Let the market decide. Nifty is moving in no trading zone.

Trade above 6125 for positional long and Positional short trade below 6050 followed by 5990.

 NO TRADING ZONE BETWEEN 6050-6125. WASHOUT ZONE FOR MARKET.