NIFTY XRAY REPORT FOR 30 MARCH

 NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 30 MARCH

AS PER NIFTY EOD CHARTS IT HAS BEEN FALLING CONTINUES SIX WEEK AND FORMED SIX RED CANDLESTICK PATTERN, WHICH WAS NOT HAPPENED IN EVEN BEAR MARKET LAST YEAR. FURTHER SHORT TERM TREND IS DOWN AND I THINK IT WILL TOUCH 4950-5000 LEVEL VERY SOON. THERE ARE THREE- FOUR TECHNICAL REASON FOR THIS FALL.
1.- DAILY TREND LINE SUPPORT
2.-WEEKLY TRENDLINE SUPPORT
3.-MONTHLY TREND LINE SUPPORT
4.NIFTY 61% RETRACMENT LEVEL
THESE ALL LEVELS ARE COMING AROUND 4950. BUT QUESTION IS THAT WILL NIFTY FALL STRAIGHT WITHOUT GIVING RESPECT TO 200 DMA. YES IT MAY BE OR MAY NOT BE, BOTH ARE POSSIBLE.
NOW  LETS CONSIDER OPTION DATA.
TODAY 5000 PE ADDED HIGEST OPEN INTEREST AND 5400 CALL ADDED HIGEST OPEN INTEREST. 5200 PE OI  IS 3763050 ADDED 540400 NEW CONTRACTS AND 5200 CE ADDED 571950 NEW CONTRACTS TODAY WITH TOTAL OI 2028350. 5200 CE  IV IS 24.87 AND 5200 PE IV IS 22.40. CURRENTLY 5200 CALL IV IS GREATER THAN 5200 PE IV.THIS DATA IS INDICATING THAT MARKET MAY REVERSE ABOVE 5200 IN NEAR TERM AFTER TESTING TODAY LOW OR 200 DMA.
PUT CALL RATIO IS AT 1.08
THERE IS A CHANCE OF RECOVERY FROM CURRENT LEVEL  TILL 5300-5330-5360.  BUT MARKET WILL MUST COME AROUND 4950-4900 LEVEL IN APRIL. WATCH TOMORROW MARKET MUST BE CLOSE ABOVE 5220 TOMORROW FOR UP MOVE. BUT ANY CLOSE BELOW 5130 IT MAY KISS 5080 LEVEL WHICH IS ALSO 50% RETRENCHMENT  LEVEL.

NIFTY MARCH EXPIRY EXPECTED EITHER AT 5135 OR 5235. BUT NIFTY SHOULD MUST CLOSE ABOVE 5217 LEVEL TILL TOMORROW MONTHLY CLOSING FOR BULLISH TREND. NIFTY HAS FORMED 6 CONTINUES RED CANDLE ON EOD CHARTS WHICH
HAS NOT HAPPEN IN BEAR MARKET TREND LAST YEAR. SO A SHORT TERM UP WARDS MOVE IS EXPECTED UP TO 5330. ANOTHER THING IS THAT NIFTY WILL GIVE RESPECT AT LEAST ONE TIME AT 200 DMA. IF NOT STRAIGHT FALL UP TO 4950.

NIFTY X-RAY REPORT

AS PER NIFTY CHARTS ANALYSIS IT IS SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM DOWN TREND. NIFTY IS MAKING DOWN TREND EVERYDAY. WHERE THIS FALL WILL STOP. IF WE CONSIDER ALL THREE DAILY, WEEKLY AND MONTHLY CHARTS STRONG TREND LINE SUPPORT AROUND 4900. NOW LETS CONSIDER THE NIFTY NATURE IN PREVIOUS YEAR. YOU WILL FIND THAT NIFTY HAS FALLEN OR RISEN ALMOST 60-70%. NIFTY UP TREND STARTED 4535 TO 5635. 1100 POINTS RALLY. 60% FALL WILL COME AROUND 4940. NOW SEE THE ALL CHARTS BELOW ALL THREE CHARTS TREND LINE SUPPORT IS AROUND 4940 LEVEL.
NOW LETS CONSIDER OPTION OPEN INTEREST DATA. ACCORDIND TO APRIL OPTION OPEN INTEREST DATA IT IS ALSO SUGGESTING RANGE BETWEEN 4900-5400.
BOTH LEVEL WILL ACHEAVE IN APRIL.

monthly trend

weekly trend

What is open interest?

What is open interest in the futures and options segment?
Open interest is the total number of outstanding futures and options (F&O ) contracts at any point in time. In other words, these are open or yet to be settled contracts. For instance, if trader X buys 2 futures contract from trader Y(who is the seller), then open interest rises by 2. 

If another trader A buys 2 futures contracts from trader B, then the open interest rises to 4. Now, if trader X unwinds his position and the counter party is either Y or B, then the open interest in the system will reduce by that quantity.
But if X unwinds his position, and the counter party is a new entrant, say C, then the open interest will remain unchanged. This is because while X has squared off his position, C's position is still open. The level of outstanding positions in the derivatives segment is one of the parameters widely tracked by the market.
How can one interpret open interest data?
While open interest shows the total number of outstanding contracts, the data is not much of use, if looked at on a standalone basis. In the futures segment, open interest data need to be read along with price changes in the futures contract.
A rise in open interest in a futures contract along with its price indicates bullishness, which means investors are creating long positions. Investors may benchmark the price changes in the futures contract to the underlying (the cash market).
For instance, on Monday, if Nifty futures closes at 3000 and S&P Nifty at 3025, then it is said Nifty futures are trading at a 25-point discount to the cash market index. Let's assume that open interest in the Nifty futures contract on Monday was 1 crore units. Now, on Tuesday, if Nifty futures closes at 3050, S&P Nifty at 3060 (discount reduces to 10 points) and open interest rises to 1.25 crore, then it means, investors have created long positions.
In another scenario, if open interest in the contract rises, but price falls, then it indicates that investors are cautious or bearish. In short, investors are creating short positions. Now, in case open interest in the futures contract falls, but its price moves up, it indicates a bullish trend. This situation is a result of covering of short positions. In another scenario where there is a fall in open interest and price too, analysts read it as a bearish signal, as investors are liquidating their long positions .
The above example can be used in these scenarios too. In the options segment, a change in open interest in put or call options enables traders calculate the put call ratio (PCR) — a popular sentiment indicators of options traders worldwide, which is the number of puts divided by the number of calls.
Is open interest the same as trading volumes?
Open interest should not be mistaken for volumes, which is the total number of contracts that have been traded in a trading session. Higher the number of trades in a session, more will the volumes swell, unlike open interest, which drops if a contract is liquidated. Usually, traders use volumes data along with open interest data and prices to derive a more concrete view on the market. 

Why do traders get nervous when open interest is higher-than-average , when the market is also at record highs?
Many experienced traders perceive an abnormally high open interest in a rising market as a warning that there could be a reversal in the bullish trend. This is because several of the weaker traders in the market, who had jumped on to the bandwagon when the market was rising , could square up positions at the slightest signs of correction, thereby sparking a self-feeding fall.

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NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 28 MARCH

NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 28 MARCH
NIFTY CLOSED AT 5243.15(1.14%)UP
5100 CE OI DECREASED BY 265550 TOTAL OI 1380900
5200 CE OI DECREASED BY 322650 TOTAL OI 5383950
5300 CE OI DECREASED BY 830850 TOTAL OI 5357200
5200 PE OI ADDED 811550 SHARES TOTAL OI 7214800
5300 PE OI ADDED 597050 SHARES TOTAL OI 4192500

A very volatile trading session and finally nifty took support around 5200 and closed almost 50 points up. nifty future was up by 60 points yesterday and open interest was also increased by 70131 contracts indicating shorts were covered yesterday and long buildup seen in option.
5200 pe and 5300 pe open interest seen huge open interest seen huge addition and open interest decreased in 5100,5200 and, 5300 call indicating shorts were covered yesterday. As per EOD charts slow stochastic nifty is in over sold and RSI has turned up. Nifty has formed dojji and bullish harami pattern on charts which is indicating it may rise in near term.
If nifty sustain today 5272 it may touch 5320 and 5380 level. I expect expirey between these levels.
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swing indicators
5D    SELL AT 5257 REVERSAL 5386
10D  SELL AT 5184 REVERSAL 5499
20D SELL AT 5222 REVERSAL 5499
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INTRADAY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL
S2-5141/S1-5192/PIVOT-5235/R1-5285/5328

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