NIFTY VIEWS FOR 25 MAY 2012

 The markets gave a robust  punch to bears and in a single move it closed above 4900 today with banking and oil & gas leading the rally. Technology, metal and auto stocks, too, closed with significant gains. FMCG and consumer durables were the only two sectors that closed with moderate gains. The Sensex closed at 16222, up 274 points from its previous close, and the Nifty shut shop at 4921, up 86 points. The market breadth was positive with advances at 892 against declines of 512 on the NSE. The top Nifty gainers were ONGC, BHARTI AIRTEL, AND BANK OF BARODA. Nifty 4900 put added 1873300 shares in open interest and 4900 call decreased 403950 shares from open interest. 4800 call decreased 1140700 shares from open interest. As Nifty future up by 98 points with addition in open interest in 4800 and 4900 put indicating that market is not ready to go below 4900 level further. As i have indicated in morning that price hike in petrol will give bullish indication for our market, while maximum analyst were bearish with this news.
Market tested 4800 2 times and jump back from there. But it need more confirmation for bull rally. It must should close above 4935-4960 level. If market close above 4960 tomorrow it will confirm a bullish rally ahead till 5100 level further in very short term. today FII sold 660 crores in derivative segment indicates that they have covered only shorts. They dont have any fresh buying. 
Is the market have made bottom around 4800 level ?
As per wave theory it has made bottom here. Any close above 5100 this time B wave will take bulls upto 5900-6000 level in two or three months.
If nifty close above this time 4960 truck load with nifty for theshort term  target of 5170 and long term target of 5900.

DON'T MISS

BUY NIFTY FUTURE AROUND 4800 LEVEL STOPLOSS 4770 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL.
OR
BUY JUNE 4900 CALL AROUND 125 STOP LOSS  85

Market opened positive but it was a disappointing end to a session which traded with a positive bias until noon after which the market turned nervous and gave up all its gains due to record weakness in the rupee. Heavyweights tumbled pulling the Nifty down below 4900 where it closed. Sensex shut shop at 16026, down 156 points and Nifty at 4860, down 45 points from the previous close. Nifty future open interest increased by 2.75% today. 4900 call added 677200 contracts in open interest and put decreased 141550 contracts. As per option data I told you that we will see volatility around 4900 level. I have been bullish since 10 days but market tasted our patience ultimately. I  had a view that market will recovered from around 4800 level. It recovered but it could not sustained above 4930 level and failed. lets consider charts once again. I have posted below 15 min charts with elliot wave analysis. Currently we were falling in wave A from 5630 which end at 4788 and  from 4788 if my count is right this wave should go to 6000 level. It doesn't mean that it will go straight from here. On 15 min charts day before yesterday move was a rally of "B" wave, small subwave take this rally up to 4956. and from 4956 a correction has happened to 4849 level.and from 4860 which is closing price a up move should come in coming days upto 5100 level very soon. Remember our expectation is that we are in for a bigger up move.The second wave usually  retraces deep but it should not go below wave 1 starting point (4788).  In general all would be thinking that this rally will not sustainable because rupee hits life time low at 55.44, but technically the story is different. Nifty moved from 4788 to 4956, 167 points. today it fell to 107 points which is 61.8% feb. level therefor another up move will happen very soon which will take nifty upto 5100 level. Another interesting thing is that if market reversed from here(4860) it will form a HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN on 15 min and 30 min charts. Now lets a glance on FII activity today. FII bought 863 crores in derivative segment.They have bought 572 crores of index future. Why FII bought after long time in market here when rupees is hiting all time low. Something is cooking my dear.If you are long don't worry untill nifty hold 4788 level.

WARNING BE READY FOR BIG UP MOVE.

ALL ABOVE ANALYSIS WILL TERMINATE IF NIFTY BREAK 4788 LEVEL.

CLICK ON CHART FOR ENLARGE VIEWS.

BANK NIFTY

 
BANK NIFTY HAS RECOVERED  FROM LOWER BOLLINGER BAND ON DAILY AND WEEKLY CHARTS SMARTLY. AFTER MAKING LOW 9000 TODAY IT CLOSED AT 9412. IT SHORT TERM TARGET IS 9650. ANY TWO CONSECUTIVE CLOSE ABOVE 9650 WILL  BECOME ROCKET.  SO 9650  WILL ACT AS LAKSHMAN REKHA FOR BANK NIFTY.

STATE BANK OF INDIA

FEW DAYS BACK I RECOMMENDED BUY SBI AROUND 1800 TODAY IT CLOSED AT 2004. SAFE TRADER CAN BOOK PROFIT IN SBI TOMORROW AND SHORTERM INVESTORS WHO HAVE TWO THREE MONTHS TIME FRAME HOLD IT WITH 1850 AS STOPLOSS.






 

NIFTY

As I told you in my previous post that untill unless nifty close above 4930 up move cannot be confirmed. It is acted like a lakshman rekha. Today Nifty touched 4938 twice and slide from there. It made low 4888 and recovered from there also and closed at 4906 level.
Today 4900 put added 405400 contracts in open interest and 4900 call added 440300 contracts in open interest which indicate volatile move around 4900 level. But what I saw today that no shorts buildup by smart players. As per nifty EOD charts bullish ingulfing pattern seen yesterday and today it hold the  yesterday level. Nifty is improving upside from its lower bollinger band. As per slow stochastick and RSI it is improving but no strength showing on slow stochasticks indicator. If global market support tomorrow i  highly expect a 65-70 points rally up side. Currently no shorts are advisable here untill unless nifty slide below 4880. But whenever I saw around trend reversal level first Bank Nifty give smart reversal. It has showed very smart recovery from last two days.After nifty crossing and closing above 4930 will give a jump to 5040.

BANK NIFTY HAS RECOVERED SMARTLY FROM UPPER FALLING WAGE TRENDLINE. ON DAILY CHARTS BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN HAS FORMED ON DAILY CHARTS. IF BANK NIFTY CLOSE ABOVE 9500  WILL CONFIRM THIS UP MOVE. WE MAY SEE  STRONG RESISTANCE AROUND 200 SMA AT 9634. A LARGE MOVE WILL COME AFTER CROSSING AND CLOSING ABOVE 9634 LEVEL. RSI AND SLOW STOCHASTICK INDICATOR IS IN OVERSOLD ZONE MAY GIVE FAVOR FOR BULLS. IF BANK NIFTY CLOSE POSITIVE TODAY WILL CONFIRM A POSITIVE DIVERGENCE ON WEEKLY CHARTS.

                                                          










The RSI fell below 30 for the first time while wave counts are extending in a C. Wave C has a minimum target of 4840 and an extended target of 4785. Once complete this wave C Nifty bounce would occur that might bring us out of oversold territory. 4976 previous Fridays high and 5030 are key resistance levels. The Nifty is now clearly below all the supports from the falling channel and falling wedge like pattern. At 5040 that high should be formidable in the short term. The 61.8% retracement at 4950 broke, 4785 was the 75% retracement that it tasted on friday and from there Nifty smartly recovered.

Now the question is where will nifty go from here. Two situation are creating here. 
1:- it should jump smartly upto 5900 in three sub waves.
2:- It should fall up to 4200 level in two sub waves.
Currently nifty is in highly oversold zone on both daily and weekly charts. Watch carefully 4935 level on monday. for up move nifty must close above this level and closing above this level will give first confirmation for up move.After crossing 5030 level and closing above this level on weekly basis will give second strong confirmation for the target of 5900 in next two  months. These all things will only happen when global market will support our market.
Dow jones has strong support at 12250,  so key level to watch this 12250 for dow. If we move below 12250 on DOW we may see fall up to 11800-11500. In that situation our market will not act in different waves and we may fall up to 4500 again after failing 4935 level on nifty.
Therefor 12250 for DOW level will be trend decider level for all market.


80% chances ---------------------------5900 in next two months
20% chances ---------------------------4200 in next three months