NIFTY UPDATE

Exhaustion gap

Lots of people would have been expecting a strong rate cut by RBI but technical indicators are giving warning. Lets analyze what is that. First of all we have seen a exhaustion gap on hourly chart which is first reversal signal. An exhaustion gap in technical analysis is a price gap on a chart that usually appears on a strong uptrend and it comes at the end of up move. An exhaustion gap is an early warning sign that the current uptrend is losing steam and it is ready for a major retracement back to a reasonable level.  When the gap occurs this is a sign that the stock is tired and is losing its upward momentum. If the next bar close below the first bar, there is a good indication that that an exhaustion gap is in play. Under this type of situation stop loss can be placed above the high of the first bar and the rest is history is available for see as example.  The stock should immediately begin to fall precipitously without any retracements.  

See this Advance Decline chart. When the price was falling below 5500 and making new low Advance Decline chart was not making new low. Now negative divergence has occured  on daily chart and giving warning sign and it seems that the up move from 5477 to 5960 is corrective in nature and may reverse soon. Now the every eyes are on the RBI meet. As Nifty has given flat closing so there is no changing in technical levels. Nifty is making base around 5870 spot price levels since four days. So breaking this down side base will be first strong reversal sign other wise sideways action is expected till RBI meets. Breaking this four days consolidation range will give a fresh direction. Low risk trading opportunity is coming for option traders. After breaking range minimum 200 points rally is expected either side. Buy 5800 put option and 6000 call option equal quantity around 50 rs price. If impressive Rate cut happen then Market may touch its previous top till 6100 and if RBI fail to full fill market expectation then fast fall may be happen. Domestic political uncertainty may provoke the downside move.

More Details to Our subscribers:

CHEERS !!!!! GOOD LUCK 

A SHIFT FROM MENTAL ANALYSIS

 A SHIFT FROM MENTAL ANALYSIS

 There are two groups of traders one is technical traders and another is individual mental traders. 90% traders are on the individual mental analysis side and only 10% traders are technical analysis side.   10% technical traders earn money of 90% mental individual traders they lose, because they trade with their expectation. Often you would have seen the FIIs and DIIs trading data daily aftermarket hour in evening. If FIIs are net buyer on particular days, DIIs are sellers on that day. IT means smart money always buy emotional traders trade.  In India most of people use “fatka” ( fling) in their trading and do adventure with their capital. I don’t understand that if technical analysis works so well, why do people shift their focus to mental analysis of themselves, meaning their own individual trading psychology?  Many traders are able to make some money when their setups occur with their expectation, but then give their profits back when the market goes into CONSOLIDATION.

If only you could know when the market was going to be choppy;  that one piece of technical information could possibly turn you into a profitable trader! Choppy markets chop up your profits. Sometimes learning when NOT to trade is just as important as knowing when to trade. Knowing your trading signals and when to trade is your "offense." Knowing when NOT to take your trading signals is your "defense." To win at the trading game you need both a good offense and a good defense.

You can learn all about it from Nifty Eyes multi-level money making club "How to Avoid Choppy Markets and Get in on Major Trends." Technical analysis can help you by giving you proven filters you can add to ANY trading method telling you when your trading setup is likely NOT to work.  But, just as importantly, it also teaches you how to anticipate the end of choppy conditions and the beginning of new trends ... therefore getting you early into new mega trends!

Technical analysis is a technical science, and yet it is also a fine art. Learn how to use this skill to investigate markets and then make better and more accurate investment choices. Find out how you can skyrocket your profits by analyzing markets rightly. Technical analysis is a study of markets that is used to predict future events. It is used to investigate markets that involve trading instruments where the price is mainly determined by the factors of demand and supply. These include stock trading, Forex, commodities, futures, and so on. The big question is: Can trading be mastered?

Answer is yes, yes, and yes, You can be master in trading in few months.  Yes I have found very simple and effecting trading system which can provide you handsome profit from stock market.

Join Nifty Eyes Multi-Level Money Making Club and learn the simple way of effecting trading and effective technical analysis. Remember 100% money back guaranteed if I fail to show you minimum 50000 profits in 60 days.

www.niftyeyes.blogspot.in

NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 29 APRIL 2013 WITH WEEKLY VIEW

The Indian stock market posted solid gains during the truncated week (April 22-26, 2013), with investors indulging in some strong buying, betting on hopes the Reserve Bank will cut interest rate by following a significant drop in inflation in March. Some impressive results from India Inc., strong inflow of funds from foreign institutional investors and a fairly steady trend in global markets too contributed to the up move.

The markets closed with moderate declines in last session with realty being the worst performer down by -2.28%. The Sensex closed at 19286.72, down 120 points from its previous close, and the Nifty shut shop at 5871.45, down 44.85 points. The CNX Midcap index was down by 0.81% and closed at 7715.15, while the CNX Smallcap index loosen 1.33% in yesterday's trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 355 against declines of 666 on the NSE.

Nifty gave a breakout above falling trend line and closed above 5900 psychological level but it fell again below 5900 level next day. AS per EOD candle stick pattern Bearish harami candlestick pattern has formed on daily chart which is indicating reversal in short term trend. As per nifty Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), it is at 61 level and it has turned its face towards downside indicating trend reversal also.  As per nifty slow stochastic indicator it is placed in overbought zone. The recent price pattern on nifty daily chart hadd given strong bullish signal from 5477 with increasing RSI towards upside in near term.  Nifty has strong resistance near 5971. NIFTY is in buy mode. But momentum indicator is placed in overbought zone so short term reversal may happen.

Nifty 5900 put added fresh 345,307 fresh contracts in open interest and 5900 call added 422,500 contracts in open interest. Nifty 5900 call total OI is standing at highest no on the call side with at 4589400 contracts, indicating upside boundary in current month further. As nifty was up by 44 points and addition in 5900 call and put both indicating a volatile move around this level. Put call ratio is at 1.05  indicating bull side.

According to the data available from the exchanges, FIIs have bought shares worth over Rs 3000 crore in the current calendar month. Till the middle of last week, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of over Rs 58,500 cores this calendar year.

In the last session FIIs bought 10028 contracts of index future worth Rs. 290 cores and open interest increased by 101%. As nifty Future was down 28 points and open interest increased in index future seems that profit booking has started after a good jump.  Fii bought shares in cash segment of 224.75 cores.

LAST   HIGH - 5907  LAST LOW - 5860
WEEKLY HIGH - 5924 WEEKLY LOW - 5500
5 DMA DAILY - 5848
20 DMA DAILY- 5674

50 DMA DAILY- 5765

200 DMA DAILY- 5671

Stocks above / below 50 DMA Breakouts: Bullish / Bearish Stocks gaining / losing > 5% Stocks Oversold / Overbought Stocks at 20 day HI / LO Stocks at 52 week HI / LO

405 / 616 16 / 1 16 / 24 24 / 77 111 / 68 35 / 34

Nifty has given strong momentum in last seven days in a perfect channel pattern on hourly chart. We have seen the channel breakdown on hourly chart in last session, indicating termination of previous trend, But I don,t have clear confirmation that trend will reverse. However i assume tread line as a very powerful indicator in technical analysis. 20 period simple moving average on hourly chart is at 5863 and we found that nifty took support exact at this level in last session. Therefore 5863 level will be a very short term trend changing level. Any break below this level may drag nifty 5763 and after that 5661 level. Next week Investors eye will be on the monetary policy review from the Reserve Bank of India, shares from interest rate sensitive automobile, banking and realty sectors will be in focus right through next week, again a truncated one due to a holiday on Wednesday of MAJDOOR DIWASH (May day).

The Reserve Bank of India is scheduled to review its next monetary policy on Friday, 3rd May 2013. It is widely expected that RBI will announce a rate cut, by considering a substantial decline in Wholesale Price Inflation in March. How ever RBI in its last monetary policy had cut repo rate by 25 basis points. According to the data released by the government on April 15, 2013, the wholesale price index eased to 5.96%, its lowest level in 40 months.

In economic news the Market Economics will release India Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday (1 May). And the data on India's services sector activity in April will be released on Friday. On the global front, the outcome of the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting and disappointing U.S GDP data will impact the mood of market next week.
In short a volatile move is going to happen next week.

Short term stop loss for long trade at 5860 spot price if broken then expect 5760

Up side target expected - 5970 if broken then 6170 expected.
For larger view click on chart

Note:- Nifty Eyes Multilevel money making club provide technical training and educational knowledge with proper recommendation in index future and stock future and try to make people perfect in trading in nifty, bank nifty and various stocks future with proper education.