NIFTY X-RAY REPORT FOR 09 JULY

 
LAST WEEK SNAP SHOT:-

It was a rangebound and volatile week for the Indian market which traded in no particular direction though the bias, as per experts, remain positive. Global uncertainties weighed heavily on the Indian market leading to cautious trade. Banks this week posted the highest level since April 19 though FMCG and oil & gas sectors came under some pressure. This week's performance was average and the numbers are: Sensex up 0.4% and Nifty up 0.7%. CNX Midcap index was up 2.3%, BSE Smallcap index up 4.9% over the week. BSE Metal index was up 2.8%, BSE FMCG index down 2.1%, BSE Bankex up 3%, BSE IT index down 1.2% and BSE Auto index up 1%.

LAST DAY SNAP SHOT:-

The Indian market closed the last trading day of the week on a quiet note after a day of choppy and flat trade. Today. It was a day of consolidation for the Indian market which opened up soft and traded range bound throughout. Capital goods and commodity stocks saw unwinding pressure and IT sector, too, dragged the market down. Banks, however, lent some support. Sensex closed at 17521, down 17 points and Nifty at 5316, down 10 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 0.7% and BSE Smallcap index was down 0.2%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 574 against declines of 894 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers were ICICI Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra and HUL while losers included Jindal Steel & Power, Sesa Goa and Maruti Suzuki.

CURRENT TECHNICAL SITUATION:-

As per daily and weekly charts nifty is in strong bullish mode. Bearish harami Candlestick pattern has formed on NIFTY daily chart on 06/07/2012. Doji candlestick pattern has formed on Nifty weekly chart.
As per RSI, NIFTY is in over bought territory with a value of 83.72 on daily chart. 
As per fast stochastic ,NIFTY is in over bought range with a value of 94.15 on daily chart.
As per slow stochastic, NIFTY is in over bought range with a value of 94.15, indicating reversal may happen any day, but still it has not given any reversal sign So don't jump here until it give any indication. 
Bullish engulfing Candlestick pattern was formed on  NIFTY daily chart on 05/07/2012 Prior to pattern formation this share is in uptrend.
NIFTY is moving  above 50,100 and, 200 days Simple Moving Average.

                           Currently situation is same as it was at the level of 5090. Same thing is happening in market as happened at 5090 level. Nifty touched two times 5288 level and bounced back and facing resistance at 5340 level. Nifty has closed above 61.8% Fibonacci  level since two days which is indicating strong position in market. If we consider  Nifty monthly Line chart we will find that Nifty has formed head and shoulder pattern on the chart and ready to go up to left shoulder level. Nifty slow stochastic, RSI, ROC, and money flow index is supporting for up move on the monthly chart and it is indicating for target of  6000. There is a another strong bullish sign that Nifty has crossed above 20 EMA (mid bollinger line) on monthly chart. There is a bullish divergence also going to happen on monthly slow stochastic charts.  But there is a strong resistance around 5422 level where 76% Fibonacci level comes also. If reversal come may happen from this level. Any two consecutive close above 5422 level market will jump to 5600 level within few session. Nifty is overbought on daily and weekly charts any close below 5290 level may slip to 5217-5180 level. For up move Nifty should not close below 5217 level on monthly closing basis.  If market comes around 5217-5180 level there would be buying opportunity in index and stock specific counter also. I highly expect that Market is going towards 6000 in next two three months. Any close below 5217 on monthly basis may terminate above bullish view.  

FIIs sold index future worth rs -329.68 and open interest decreased by -1.5%, indicating that partial long has been booked at current level.

Nifty5300 put added 66,650 fresh shares in open interest and 5300 call added 250,800 shares in open interest. Nifty 5500 call added highest 779,050 shares in open interest and Nifty 5100 put added highest 608,550 shares in open interest. Nifty fell 10 points and 5300 call fell 13.40 points with the addition of 250,800 new shares in open interest, indicating 5300 call have been written on Friday buy put prices has not been increased comparatively market fall, indicating fall is limited.

Conclusion : Be long untill Nifty is above 5290 level on closing basis. And buy again if nifty comes around 5200 level . Trend is strong.